Study On Influencing Factors And Trend Prediction Of New Coronary Pneumonia In Henan Province

The novel coronavirus pneumonia(Covid-19)has become the most severe epidemic disease in the world,it has a great negative effect on human survival,economic change and social development.It also has a great influence on the determination of the influencing factors of Covid-19 and the prediction of the further development trend of the epidemic situation,it is helpful for human beings to formulate epidemic prevention and control plans in time,take necessary measures and effectively control the epidemic situation.Based on this,this study selected Henan province,which has a large population base,is located in Central Plain province and has four distinct seasons,as the study object,to collect the daily data of Covid-19 in urban areas of Henan province to establish a basic database,build models,analysis and research.The study is divided into two parts.The first part is the study of influencing factors of Covid-19 in Henan province.Based on the actual situation and the existing research results,the influencing factors of6 categories and 15 sub-categories of Covid-19 in Henan province,such as weather,population and medical level,were hypothesized.Qualitative analysis and Quantitative analysis were used LASSO to analyze the influencing factors of Covid-19 in Henan province,the Quantitative analysis not only uses regression methods to eliminate Multicollinearity based on multiple linear regression models,but also builds panel data models to study the assumed indicators separately,the comparative analysis shows that the qualitative analysis and the panel data model are more comprehensive and basically accord with the actual situation,the air quality,precipitation,the number of medical and health institutions,and the situation of vaccination have a negative impact on the newly diagnosed cases Population density,virus variation and major natural disaster indicators have positive effects on the newly diagnosed cases,and age and sex differences also have some effects.The second part is the study on the prediction of the tendency of Covid-19 in Henan province.Combined with the selected time series data,four training sets of prediction data were selected,and grey prediction GM model and time series ARMA model were established respectively to predict,and each training set predicted 12 periods of data backward,finally,compared with the real data,the 4 data sets show that the ARMA model has better prediction effect,and the fitting prediction trend is close to the real situation and the error is small,it was concluded that the concentrated outbreak time of covid-19 pneumonia in Henan province from January 2020 to June 2022 is usually about 30 days,and the trend of the outbreak time is approximately normal distribution,after 30 days,it was basically stable.