The Empirical Study Of The Effect Of The Demographic Factors On Housing Demand In China

Since the Monetization of Housing Distribution in 1998, the housing problems have been concerned by more and more people. The basic property of residential service decides that the demographic factor affects the housing demand most directly, and the changes of demographic factor have a profound impact on housing demand. It is a strategic issue related to people's livelihood to solve the housing problems of 1.3 billion people with the limited land resources, especially, on the assumption of ensuring the 18 billion mu of cultivated land in the red line unmoved. Therefore, this paper investigates the effect of the demographic factors on housing demand by empirical study.This paper firstly reviews the study progress of demographic factor and housing demand. Then it comparatives the characteristics of domestic and foreign research and summarizes the basic research ideas. Secondly, it expounds the theories of housing demand and housing market situation and problems, meanwhile, it analyzes the relevant factors of acting on the housing demand. Furthermore, on the basis of summarizing the previous studies, it further refines the factors for the factor of the structurual population growth, containing with the family structure, the age population structure and the population in urban and rural structure, the factor of the natural population growth, and the factor of the total population reflected in the population size. And analyzing the demographic characteristics of these changes and the impact on housing demand is more important. In the term of empirical, this paper takes the provincial panel data of 1999-2008 as the sample so to construct the linear model of housing demand influencing factors. By stepwise regression analysis, it has a quantitative analysis to the population factor of the influence of national housing demand. Research shows that the three population indicators, household size, the proportion of non-agricultural population and the population aged in 15-64, have a significant correlation with the housing demands for commodities in the conditions of controling general economic factors and policy factors. As a result, the following conclusions could be concluded that the quantity of housing demand increases by the families miniaturation and centrality, the continuing of urbanization process further increases the demand for urban housing, the population growth influences the housing demand by the age effects and demographic bonus effects, and in the next period, demographic factor will continue to be the driving force to the housing demand. In the end, this paper mades some policy recommendations according to the researching results and our national conditions, which is to promote the real estate's health, coordination and sustainable development.