Study Of The Effect Of The Demographic Factors On Housing Demand In Guanzhong Urban Agglomeration Under New-type Urbanization

At present,with people-oriented,to the urban agglomeration as the carrier of the development strategy of China New-type Urbanization,a large number of agricultural population transfer for urban population. Demographic dividend release quickly.Large and medium urban population aggregation degree improved significantly.This promotes the real estate industry demand to release and it also lead to the regional real estate market structure differentiation.The center city appears hot real estate,but the housing vacancy rate of satellite towns surrounding is high.Therefore,focusing on urban population scale and population structure on the influence degree of the demand for housing and its regional differences is important for the balance of the urban housing markets of the urban agglomeration and the coordinated development.First,based on the literature review,we summary the demographic transition theory of urbanization and the housing demand theory and study on the impact of urbanization on residential demand to find out the factors influencing the housing needs of the population.Second, we regard the housing demand of Guanzhong cities as the research object and describe its changes of China’s population size and population structure and housing supply and demand,housing prices,the trend of housing investment.From the angle of population scale and population structure,we build a multiple regression model based on principal component analysis and quantitatively analyze the influential degree of these factors for housing demand,thus study on the influence of urbanization on demand for residence and the regional differences.Finally,we predict housing demand inthe next 10 years and provide the reference suggestions on housing construction plan for the government.The paper concludes that population size affects housing demand of the urban agglomeration of Guanzhong city directly and population structure indirectly affect demand for housing is most obvious.The influence factors on the influence of different cities exists differences.In the next 10 years,the paper predicted that improving housing demand and shortage demand accounts for half of the total housing demand and come to a conclusion that the total housing demand for housing demand will gradually slow down in Guanzhong urban agglomeration.