Research On Forcasting Method Of Demand Of Civil Automobil And Its Application

This paper focused on the subject of demand forecasting of Chinese civilian automobile, which came from the program of Dadong District, Shenyang City, Liaoning Province(number:70472032)——Research on Policies and Strategies of automobile development at Dadong District, Shenyang City.Firstly, in the perspective of civilian consumption, we considered automobile as a kind of durable goods, and then described the dynamic process of civilian automobile consumption by distributed parameter systems (DPS). In the perspective of civilian consumers, we could also consider this process as dynamic, and then described the dynamic process of civilian consumers by the same method——distributed parameter systems (DPS). Both of the two systems were described by mathematical model in the form of partial differential equations.Secondly, taking the two described systems model together, we found the two open-loop system turn into a closed-loop system with border controls. The entire large-scale system with two border controls, which were the total number (i(t)) of civilian vehicles which enter into the state of consumption in a certain moment (per unit time) and the number (b(t)) of consumpers which enter into the state of consumption in a certain moment, and the latter decided the former.Thirdly, we introduced the function of demand and forecasted the real demand of civilian automobile applying the investigating data.Lastly, we set up amendatory model based on the primary model applying the Delphi Method and amended the primary forecasting outcome, in order to forecast the effect by the international financial crisis.