| The Internet has long been closely related to our life.Since twenty-first Century,the communication technology has been progressing.The raise of the "Internet plus" and the emergence of 5G technology have brought new network construction requirements and challenges to the communication operators.As the role of China in the international community is now becoming increasingly important,the communication guarantee of many major activities also puts forward higher requirements for the construction response speed of communication operators.Therefore,the procurement demand management has attracted great attention of communication operators.Among them,the prediction of basic material demand and inventory management are the key to ensure that operators save costs and improve construction speed.The research object of this paper,B telecom company,is a provincial branch of a large state-owned enterprise,which has distinct organizational characteristics.To a certain extent,their demand forecasting work is representative as the representative of communication operators,their demand are of "variety types of construction projects and complex material categories".As well as the requirements of rapid response of equipment and materials brought by frequent major emergency projects.Through the field investigation of B telecom company,this paper deeply studies its demand forecasting and inventory management status.At present,telecom company B has the following problems:the insufficient analysis and utilization of historical data;The demand forecasting method relies too much on the personal experience,energy and demand forecasting ability of professional administrators,lacks of standardized management;There are problems in the management mechanism,insufficient staffing,departmental barriers between demand communication,and lack of corresponding assessment,reward and punishment mechanism.Based on a study of revelent literature,this paper selected the most commonly used materials in the field of optical fiber transmission to anylasis its demand characteristics and to predict the demand of this kind of materials with the damand forecasting models.Practically using time series prediction methods to simulate prediction which like the moving average method,exponential smoothing method,Holt Exponential Smoothing Method and causal analysis prediction method and suited them with the specific scenarios.Their prediction accuracy is compared,and a more suitable prediction model is finally determined.Combined with the current situation of demand forecasting and analysis of B telecom company,this paper puts forward problems and gives targeted optimization and improvement suggestions.This demand forecasting model can be used as an important basis for placing orders and stocking up in daily work.It has the effect of improving the response speed of construction demand and the level of inventory management.Meanwhile,it can also provide reference for the demand forecasting and inventory management of other relevant enterprises. |
