Demand Forecasting Methods And Application Of A Kind Of Durable Consumption Goods

This dissertation presents some demand forecasting methods for the civilian vehicle and S city economic increasing, including distributed parameter systems, combination forecasting method, situation analysis forecasting method. Then, analyze the role civilian vehicle playing in the regional economy development. Based on this, some suggestion is given the automotive industry development planning in S city. Specifically, this dissertation does the following tentative work:(1) The civilian vehicles demand effect affects were divided into two parts from stability and change perspective, that is, the case without considering the social factors, which is in steady development under financial crisis, and the financial crisis’s effect on the civilian vehicle demand. In determining the input-output coefficients, the final demand rate parameter, this research considers not only the objective rule of automobile industry development, but also the integrated subjective information.(2) Considering from two aspects of the final demand change of national economy department and automobile industry development ability, the model can include all the factors that affect the automobile industy development. These factors are resource condition, raw materials restriction, demand factors and so on. This considering way can guarantee different department in proporation and coordination development. Based on this, the dissertation describes the dynamic variation of civilian vehicle consumer system and consumer goods system by using distributed parameter systems. These two dynamic models are integrated into one distributed parameter systems model with boundary control.(3) Combination forecasting method is presented by uniting forecasting theory, optimization method and input-output analysis theory. The combination forecasting method provides reasonable technological approach for the study. The method fully reflects the civilian vehicles features, and it can be used for reference for other similar durable consumer goods forecasting.(4) This dissertation presents the situation analysis forecasting method by uniting situation analysis theory and multi-level combination forecasting method. The forecasting method is built by taking S city econominc increasing for example. The method can carry on forecasting along multiple time line. It can make full use of forecasting information, so the decision making can well reflect the environment and the forecasting quality can be improved.(5) Analyze the regional economy pull fuction which is produced by automobile industy development from direct and indirect two aspects, and different industry pull function is described detailedly. Based on this, the dissertation gives the automobile industry development planning and the correspondingly policy recommendations.