The Research On Risk Analysis And Controlling System For Real Estate Development Project In Donglihu Area Of Tianjin

Going through twenty years development, the real estate industry, considered as one of the driving forces to the national economy, has been growing into a fundamental and leading power. Meanwhile, because of the huge investment in development project of real estate, long period of capital operation and the complicated risky components it may encounter in undergoing the project, the big loss, however, may be brought by the risks mentioned above. Therefore, it is so important that we should make risk identification in the real estate development project and arrange the guarding measures as protection in advance, which are not only the vital factors to the success of individual development project, but also playing an important guarding role in maintaining the healthy development of the whole real estate industry. The paper, taking Donglihu project as the target in analysis, is trying to find ways and solutions to the risk analysis and controlling system in the development project of real estate.Chapter One is the introduction part. It firstly sets out the purpose and meaning of choosing this title, making the analysis on the general outline of the real estate development in Tianjin as well as in the whole country. Then it summarizes and analyzes the current researching situation of risk management on real estate development project both in China and abroad, introducing, at the same time, the basic picture of real estate development in Donglihu area in Tianjin. This part is considered as the foundation paved for the following detailed analysis.Chapter Two is the part of fundamental theories. It firstly gives the definitions of"project","project risk"and"project risk management"in brief, summarizing the basic concepts and principal methods in the risk identification and the risk analysis in the project. It focuses on the introduction of the contents and the features of real estate development project risk, giving five general methods in classifying the real estate development project risk, deciding"system risk"and"non system risk"as the main categories, by which the possible risky factors encountered in real estate development project are classified in this paper. This part is considered as the precondition provided for the risk identification and risk analysis in Donglihu project.Chapter Three is the part of basic risk analysis of Donglihu project. The paper takes the project as the center example, puts investment environment of project into two categories, include macro-environment for investment and micro-environment for investment. The Chapter Three, in the comprehensive view, analyzes the situational aspects of Donglihu project in macro-investment environment like political environment, legal environment, economic environment, natural environment and social environment. It also briefly analyzes the situation in micro-investment environment like project planning conditions, natural conditions, geological conditions and infrastructure conditions. Based on the analysis of the housing market in Tianjin, this part is considered as the body focusing on the market positioning of Donglihu project and its advantages and disadvantages.Chapter Four is the part of qualitative analysis and risk identification in Donglihu project. According to the specific situation of Donglihu project, the paper lists varied risky factors that it may encounter during the practical development of Donglihu project and sets up risk identification model. With this model, this part makes an all-round identification on the investment risk in Donglihu project from three views: external influential factors, internal confining factors and development process factors. The five components consisting of external influential factors are political environment risk, economic environment risk, market supply and demand risk, society risk and finance risk. The components consisting of internal confining factors are mainly project positioning, the level of management, the capacity of finance, the degree of skill and the standard of marketing operation. There are some potential risky factors correspondingly existing on the developing stages covering early stage, establishing stage and application stage. Based on the risk identification theory, this part adopts the expert investigation method to have qualitative analysis on the project investment risk and gets the result that the risk is between"ordinary"and"little", which means a medium risk.Chapter Five is the part of quantitative analysis of Donglihu project. In order to make it out, this part makes the arrangement and processing on the statistics in Donglihu project, covering the estimation on the general capital investment, the forecasting on the sales, the organization of capital raising plan, the assessment on the capacity index of project profit making and the analysis on the loan repay ability of the project. According to the organized statistics, this part adopts the comprehensive analysis of balance of profit and loss, sensitivity analysis, and the combination of fuzzy mathematical theory and analytic hierarchy process to make the quantitative analysis on the risky factors identified by the real estate development project in Donglihu project. The result shows that the risk of this project is not big, which is the same with qualitative analysis.Chapter Six is the part of the controlling system of Donglihu project. Based on the brief analysis of common risk controlling methods, this part, according to the specific situation of Donglihu project, puts forward seven strategies and the ways of controlling system for this project, including establishing the risk controlling system, intensifying the all-round risks control, making risk guarding plan, strengthening the risk management level, lowering the project risk through the investment mix, adopting the security measures to avoid risk and perfect the market monitoring.In a word, through the comprehensive analysis, this paper indicates that some risks it may have, Donglihu project is a safe project in general. By adopting effective risk guarding plan and actively adjusting the guarding measures at very beginning of project operation, we can limit the risk within comparatively low degree and controllable scope, and finally guarantee the expected profit from the project.The paper is expecting to make Donglihu project an illustrating example, showing its ways of making risk analysis and its measures of risk guarding measures, and finally making some enlightenment to the other projects.