The Research Of CCB's Personal Loan Risk Appraisal

Nowadays, with the rapid development of personal loan business, especially after the breakout of American subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the precaution of personal loan risk becomes more and more important.Over thirty years,the economy of china developed with a surprised speed,which made the demand of money increase rapidly and the personal loan business had become one of the main business in all of Commercial Banks. Especially, along with our country's financial market opening increasingly and the foreign commercial banks with a big scale will also focus on personal loan business as to enter the Chinese market,and the competition of personal loan market is as hot as ever. With the efforts over years, though the CBC has built up a relatively complete risk control system, non-performing loan ratio has declined. But there are many problems in the risk control and prevention aspects , which need to be strengthened, especially in personal loan business. The article illustrates the definition of personal loan and the concept of personal loan risk and classifies the personal loan business with the use,limitation,ways to pay of the loan,and classifies the risk of personal loan as credit risk,market risk,and operation risk and points out that strengthening the precaution of personal loan risk is the demand and necessary choice of realizing the security, liquidity, profitability of the fund of CBC, improving the competitiveness of CBC and promoting the integrated deve- lopment of personal loan business. At the same time, the author points out that the precaution of personal loan risk is confronted with such problems as imperfect credit information bureau, deficient related laws and regulations, difficulty of collateral realization and improper operation. The article sumarrizes a large number of reference at home and abroad which are rich and valuable. This paper introduces some relevant provisions of the personal loan business.According to personal loan business regulations of CBC,when dealing with the application for loans, the manager (The man who engaged in personal loan business) should look into the age, reimbursement ability, credit of strict censorship,and analyze the related risk of point, which mainly involves personal assets of the proof of material authenticity, customer credit distinguish between lack of timeliness, internal management inappropriately etc. This paper introduces the regulations of the individual housing loan, and personal consumption loan, personal car loan rules and the causes of risk points, and the measures taken by CBC, including the the measures taken before loan and after loan, and the measures of collection and paying off.Useing model could reduce the risk of the loan , since it has higher autonomy and certain scientific nature,which not only can reduce manual labor, simplify examination and approval procedures of loans, but also master the applicants' information accurately and comprehensively.By constructing the logistic model and using the spss17.0 and the historical data in CBC, The article analyzes the index in detal which may cause the risk of loans and draws the conclusion as followed: the nature of work and reimbursement are positively associated, and significant at 0.01 level of confidence; Income and reimbursement ability are positively correlated and significant at 0.01 level of confidence; The loan amount and whether to repay the loan on time negatively correlated and are significant at 0.01 level of confidence; Reimbursement deadline was positively associated with whether on time reimbursement and siginificant at 0.01 level of confidence.Many clients according to their income and loan amount will take on the installment plan, this practice will reduce the current debt pressure; Common reimbursement people and the guarantor will increase the possibility of reimbursement,which are siginificant at 0.01 level of confidence. Variables such as age, collateral nature which fail to enter the model contribute little to the possibity of default. Through the above analysis, this model can provides certain reference for CBC and even commercial banks to establishing personal credit evaluation system in selection important borrower individual indicators.At last, the author suggests that CBC should construct a personal loan risk appraisal system and improve the ideology of risk management totally.Personal loan business has become an important part of CBC, which involves so many departments, staff and links that how to do risk prevention work well has become an important problem we focus on. Facing the credit risk, market risk, operation risk mutual connection, which interact and link with each other.In order to manage and prevent risk effectively, we must improve the ideology of risk management totally as soon as possible: definite the risk management goals;creating a comprehensive risk management policy ;make full use of modern risk management technology;improve the comprehensive risk management ability;cultivate comprehensive risk management culture;improve the participation of risk management of the initiative and the creativity;reduce the personal credit risk;rise in value.