Research On Risk Control Of Commercial Banks Personal Credit Loan Based On Logistic Regression

With the development of interest rate marketization,the bank's deposit-loan spreads have been shrinking,and the income of traditional loans has dropped significantly.Personal credit loan has become a new source of profit growth for banks because it has relatively high loan interest rates and can directly meet the daily consumption demand of residents.More and more domestic and foreign commercial banks have begun to actively develop personal credit loan.However,in order to gain market share,they have lowered loan request or ignored the actual use of loans,which lead to customers with low repayment ability entering the personal credit market,and then the capital of loan flows to the stock market.the property market.financial products.etc..thus arising a serious hidden danger of default.Therefore,how to effectively prevent the risk of personal credit loan is particularly important.This paper overviews the research status of risk control of personal credit loan at home and abroad,introduces the related concepts and characteristics of personal credit loan,and sorts out the development status of personal credit loan at home and abroad,and analyses the types of risks and the causes of risks,pointing out the problems that commercial banks have in the development of personal credit loan.Secondly,we chose quantitative analysis to evaluate influence factors of personal credit default,using data of a commercial bank as an analysis sample,selecting gender,age,marriage,education level,unit nature,industry name,monthly income after tax,living status,loan purpose,contract period,payment method,and total loan amount as explanatory variables,and picked whether or not the loan defaults as an explained variable.In the analysis of the significance level of the factors affecting default,this paper uses Logistic regression method to establish the model,which has fewer restrictions,convenient operation,high predictability,can improve the efficiency of decision to personal credit loan.It is widely used in credit risk control.The analysis results show that the unit nature,contract period and total loan amount have the most significant influence on personal credit default,which should be paid close attention on risk control of personal credit loan.Last but not least,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions on the risk control of personal credit loan,including improving information system of the personal credit,the legal environment of personal credit and the level of risk assessment,regulating internet financial market,rationalizing the pricing of personal credit loan,and strengthening the internal management of commercial banks.