Analysis Of The Strategy And Influencing Factors Of The Rapeseed Production In Hubei Province

Vegetable oil is a necessity for living, grease oil industry is closely related with the security of food production and people living. As the largest rapeseeds producing province of China, the level of Hubei Province rapeseed production will be related to the overall development of China's rapeseed industry.And the fluctuations of rapeseed production could cause oil industry security problems, as much as caused the economy fluctuations in Hubei province and the whole country. Therefore, oil security issues in Hubei Province which have very important status in oil industry security of China and can not be ignored. This paper analyzes the influencing factors of rapeseed production of Hubei Province will contribute much to maximize its production potential and provide a reference for national oil industry policies.The first chapter is introduction of the paper, which includes the background and meaning, correlative disquisition, research methods, the content and research framework, some innovation and the scarcity of this paper.The second chapter introduces the status of rapeseed production in Hubei Province, and reviews the development stage of the rapeseed production in Hubei since the reform and open policy. Hubei rapeseed production faces some problems, which are such as:the decline of the quality and quantity of land and labor, underdeveloped agriculture infrastructure, the decline of comparative effectiveness of rape cultivation, the week of agricultural research and extension system, the low level of mechanization problems.The third chapter introduces the basic principle of gray relational analysis and constructs model based on the principle, and then analyzes rapeseed production influencing factors with the method of grey relational analysis, and we calculate the grey correlation degrees of the three periods and sorted. Finally, according to the ranking correlation comparison of the influencing factors during the three periods, we list the five top factors in each period and find that rape planting area, chemical fertilizers and pesticides are the main influencing factors. We conclude that rape planting area is the most stable factor, which has consistently ranked in the top three in the three periods, and the status of other factors are in flux at all times.The forth chapter constructs Cobb-Dauglas production function model of Hubei province from 1990-2009, we choose nine influencing factors which are rape planting area, used agricultural chemical insecticides, effective irrigation area, total power of agricultural machinery, number of agricultural labor, consumption of chemical fertilizers,rural electricity consumption and disaster area of crops as the independent variables. After analyzing, testing and amending, we choose the model which contains rape planting area, used agricultural chemical insecticides, consumption of chemical fertilizers and disaster area of crops as the optimal model. And the four main influencing factors are coinciding with the conclusion of chapter three. We divide the period of rapid growth in rapeseed production, decline and recovery period, and then calculate the contribution rates respectively. By normalized, we compare the contribution trends of rapeseed production four main influencing factors in the three stages, and conclude that top three influencing factors are rape planting area, used agricultural chemical insecticides and consumption of chemical fertilizers. The contribution rate of rape planting area has consistently ranked first in the three periods, and the contribution rate increases over time. While the contribution of used agricultural chemical insecticides showing declining trend in the three periods.The fifth chapter is conclusion and policy advice. On the basis of the former conclusions, we bring forward some policy advices from the perspective of strict controlling of cultivated land, strengthening the agricultural ecological environment protection, increasing agricultural infrastructure construction, strengthen scientific and technological inputs and enhance the enthusiasm of farmer's rape planting.In conclusion, rapeseed production is a very complex process, and the production influencing factors are complex, especially with the development of science and technology, the factors will be diversified. Using the grey relational analysis, the paper find the main influencing factors of rapeseed production in Hubei Province in the three stages:1979 to 1989,1990 to 1999 and 2000 to 2009.And then we constructs Cobb-Dauglas production function model of Hubei province from 1990-2009 between rapeseed production and its main influencing factors, and calculate the contribution rates respectively. The results show that rapeseed production in Hubei is still mainly rely on traditional input factors, such as rapeseed plantings, fertilizer and pesticide. Hubei should increase investment in science and technology, especially raising the level of mechanization to achieve rapeseed production growth pattern.