Evaluation Of Intensive Use Of Urban Industrial Land And Its Potential Developing

Intensive use of urban industrial land is the necessary requirements for economically rational allocation and sustainable use of resources. And intensive use potential mining of urban industrial land was effective ways to resolve conflicts between land demand of social economic development and sticking to the red line of farmland.Thesis topic selection came from National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.:09BZZ024). We selected the typical business (garment etc. industry, equipment etc. industry and chemical etc. industry) of light industry, heavy industry, and chemical industry in Hubei province for the sample survey. This article comprehensively applied some mathematical methodes, such as sample interval estimation to determine ideal value, Bayes discrimination to evaluate intensive use of urban industrial land, the idea of geometric mean to calculate the potential, single factor variance analysis and simple linear regression to develop the potential.The results by normative analysis and empirical study based on the mathematical methods showed that:①about ideal value, the positive correlation indicators were upper that'sμ+1.96σ-and the negative correlation indicators were lower that'sμ-1.96σ-x②Regard to the evaluation of incentive use of industry land:in garment etc. industry, excessive use was 16.36%, proper use was 1.82%, moderate use was 25.45%, lower use was 56.36%; in equipment etc. industry, excessive use was 47.06%, proper use was 0.00%, moderate use was 11.76%, lower use was 41.18%; in chemical etc. industry, excessive use was 25.64%, proper use was 5.31%, moderate use was 2.56%, lower use was 66.67%.③Concerning the potential estimation in view of idea of geometric mean in Hubei province, garment etc. industry, the status area was 273.03 hectares, the potential area was 183.55 hectares, the ratio was 77.67%, equipment etc. industry, the status area was 86.45 hectares, the potential area was 66.28 hectares, the ratio was 76.67%, chemical etc. industry, the status area was 196.05 hectares, the potential area was 158.16 hectares, the ratio was 80.67%.④Variance analysis which selected the area of enterprise as the single factor showed that the potential of incentive use of urban industrial land was no obvious differences. Simple linear regression about the potential with administrative management and business management indicated that they had a simple linear positive relationship, but business management efficiency was over 5 times than administrative management.How to come true the potential of intensive use of urban industrial land? We thought that it mainly depended on administration guide, but the key was enterprise self-management, and integrated use human resourses, material resourses and financial resources to improve the comprehensive potential of incentive use of urban industrial land.This paper proposed methods for the ideal value and evaluation of incentive use of urban industrial land were different from the traditional methods, avoiding the trouble of determining weight, and that could make the evaluation results more scientific, objective and real. At the same time, we introduced probability theory and mathematical statistics theory into the evaluation of intensive use of urban industrial land, by observing the frequency of certain phenomena to discover the inherent regularity of the phenomenon and to make certain judgments and prediction accuracy. Through empirical research in this paper, we arrived at a conclusion that the methods system of incentive use evaluation and the potential mining was an effective system.