Study On Supply Response Of Chinese Agriculture

With the rapid development of China's economy, the improvement of people's living standard and the constant increase of the population,China's demand of grain are increasing. At the same time, there's also higher demand of grain's qulity. Therefore,to meet the domastic grain demand become a big problem.Supply response is one of the main theories to the study of grain supply.For that reason, to study China's grain supply response with the combination of evidence analysis and standard analysis are meaningful and important both in theory and in reality.First of all, this research has made simple analysis and summary to the state of China's grain-production. From relevant output data of grain and china's demand of grain, it obtains that corn, maize and wheat are three main grain varieties of China. Later it analyzes the output, sown area and unit area output state of China's three main grain-production in an all-round way, to China's three probloms in the secural supply of grain, stabilizing grain price and increase peasants'income, through studying domestic and international relevant grain supply theory, confirms that it studies with Nerlove supply react model on the comprehensive supply problem of China's three main grain.The study bases on the Nerlove supply react model, analyzes the real example of the price, cost, net profit of per unit area yield, net profit of the per unit area yield of other crops corresponding to the total area of China's corn, maize and wheat from 1978 to 2008 innovately, studys comparely to the react extent to different grain supply and analyzes the reasons.The result of the study shows that lagged effect of the first stage of wheat area is the biggest, maize secondly, corn the smallest. In term of price, the price coefficient of each varieties of grain is relatively low, and the coefficient of price elasticity of the maize is the lowest; in terms of net profit of the per unit area yield and T value, the income of each varieties of grain expectancy coefficient is greater than the corresponding price expectancy coefficient, and the corresponding long-term and short-term price coefficient are both larger than income coefficient, so the influence of the direct producing cost is negative value. The coefficient of the net profit of other per unit area yields of agricultural product is coming at a time in the wheat and maize, the coefficient of the net profit of other per unit area yields of agricultural product is the negative value of corn and three kinds of grain are synthesized, which proved that the influence of grain growers'price and expenses value are greater than the influence of income and substitute income in producing.The above results of the study indicate that the price of China's three major grain and net profit elasticity of per unit area yield are lower, which is apt to cause slow reaction of Chinese grain supply, and lead to inadjustment of the cultivated area of grain to the market lead, which is unfavorable to the security and stability of the Chinese grain market, and has brought unfavorable factors to Chinese grain grower. The study provides six policy recommendations which can increase peasant's income and ensure the security of China's grain supply, which are: steady the grain price ,strengthen the direct subsity to grain, strengthen the agricultural technological innovation, protect the cultivated land and improve the market-based rate of agricultural product, planning with guide and improving peasant's knowledge level.