| China had been able to supply sufficient grain to feed its growing population and also supplement world grain supplies since China's White Paper on Food Security and Grain Production was announced in 1996. However, the micro and macro environment factors that impact Chinese grain supply and demand are changing with the rapid economy development and process of Chinese rural industrialization and urbanization, even with the higher degree of Chinese agricultural marketlization and internationalization. Therefore, to investigate the effects of these factors on Chinese grain supply and demand and to examine the internal mechanism of Chinese grain supply and demand regional equilibrium is practically and theoretically significant to assure China's food safety under the background of globalization by the effective polices and measures.Based on the literatures about Chinese grain supply and demand equilibrium, changes of grain production, consumption and international trade were analyzed firstly using the panel data of Chinese grain production in 31 provinces in China from 1978 to 2006, and then the reasons of these changes were empirically studied by spatial error model. Secondly, the current key factors effected the change of Chinese grain supply and demand were summarized and scrutinized in this dissertation. Thirdly, based on the widely used theory and structure of "Multi-market, multi-regional partial equilibrium model", the Chinese World Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model (CWARMEM) that concluded 18 kinds of agricultural products and 57 regions was constructed. Further more, rice, wheat, maize, soybeans, roots and other coarse grain of Chinese 31 provinces were the primary objects studied in this dissertation. Fourthly, nine simulation scenarios were designed according the current key factors effected the change of Chinese grain supply and demand above. Then the scenarios were simulated by CWARMEM. The different results of Chinese grain production, consumption and trade under the simulations were lay out, which showed the internal mechanism about changes of Chinese grain supply and demand equilibrium. In the end, the main conclusions of this study and several policy measures were sum up. Totally, five main parts were constructed in the dissertation.The first part was about the current literature review, which is Chapter 2 in this dissertation. Based on the theory of partial equilibrium model and large country trade model, the methods and conclusions about studying the topic of Chinese grain supply and demand were reviewed. It was resulted that some limits in the most of current studies, which were especially the "small country" hypothesis not considering the commutative effects between China and the world market, and the qualitative methods which could not analyze the changes of Chinese grain supply and demand equilibrium quantitatively. So the research of this dissertation is positive to supplement the current study to some extent about this topic.The second part was Chapter 3 in this dissertation. Grounded on the panel data from 1978 to 2006, changes of Chinese provinces' grain production, of Chinese grain consumption structure and of Chinese grain international trade were examined in the first. Then the explanations of these changes were empirically analyzed by the Spatial Empirical Economics model especially from the aspects of natural environment, technology economics, population and regional economy, and grain policy. Results suggested that the grains production in different provinces is effected by neighboring provinces in China; increasing grains production reduces grains production in the nearby provinces. Besides environment and technology progress, distinctions of average arable land area, nonagricultural employment and working income affected grains production significantly in different provinces of China; the effects were more obviously in rice and wheat production. We hypothesized that as the expanding of discrepant economy in different provinces of China; grain production would transfer and centralize to the provinces having larger arable land area, less nonagricultural employment and low salary.The third part included Chapter 4. The new development trend of the current key factors effected the change of Chinese grain supply and demand were summarized and scrutinized in Chapter 4. It was resulted that the continuous potential of Chinese grain production would be limited and the sustained demand of Chinese grain consumption would be rising, with the rural challeges from the national and international grain market environment in the coming years.The fourth part included Chapter 5 and Chapter 6, which were about the model construction, data process and parameter estimation. Firstly, based on the theory and structure of "Multi-market, multi-regional partial equilibrium model", the Chinese World Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model (CWARMEM). Secondly, the scope of agricultural products and countries were established, the model working flow was created, the model 10791 mathematical equitation was formed, and the solving process of the model was showed by GAMS arithmetic. Thirdly, grounded on CWARMEM model's structure, the data requirement and data base were built up, and then the parameters of supply and demand system were estimated and calibrated using these data.The fifth part included Chapter 7. Nine scenarios were designed, which were "Decreasing arable land resource in the process of Chinese urbanization and industrialization", "Increasing water usage for Chinese grain production", "Agricultural technology advancement for Chinese grain production", "Rigid increasing population in China", "Transference of rural labors between different provinces in China", "Changes of food consumption with increasing Chinese citizens and rural people's income", "Appreciation of Chinese RMB", "Increasing grain industry demand in China for the development of bio-ethanol" and "Changes of Chinese grain producer subsidy policy". After then, these scenarios were simulated and different results of Chinese grain production, consumption and trade were got by CWARMEM.The sixth part was Chapter 8, which were conclusions and policy measures in this dissertation. The conclusions of whole research were summarized and the development goal and policy selection of Chinese grain supply and demand were sum up.Compared with the existing similar domestic study, the main progresses that this dissertation makes are the follows. Firstly, empirically evaluating the spatial-spillover effects using the Spatial Econometrical Models in the changes of Chinese grain supply and demand is seldom done in domestic studies. Secondly, considering the "large country effect" in the study of Chinese grain supply and demand is rarely studied in the current studies. Thirdly, on the basis of the international widely-used "Multi-market, multi-regional partial equilibrium model", the author proposes the Chinese World Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model (CWARMEM), and then uses this model to simulate 9 key scenarios that are main factors effecting the changes of Chinese grain supply and demand. Lastly, since the empirical analysis is based on detailed and reasonable data process and through practical quantitative methods, the conclusions and policy implications are more scientific and of practical significance. |
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