Simulating Research On Multi-Agent Dynamic Game In China Carbon Sequestration Market Based On Complex Adaptive System Theory

Nowadays we are facing serious global challenges in accelerating explosion of world population, worsening environment pollution, as well as enhancing of the Greenhouse Effect. Global climate change affects the human beings'survival and development profoundly, is a major challenge the world faced with. Energy conversation and emission reduction, protecting the common planet and dealing with climate changes are the urgent tasks of the world, so does the establishment of Carbon Sequestration Market (CSM). This research proposes establishing China CSM under the guidance of Complex Adaptive System theory under such background, and simulating the operation of system agent in the CSM. The research conclusions and innovations are listed as follows:This research focus on China CSM draws on the experiences of sophisticated foreign CSM and summarizes the relevant CSM establishment theories. (1) Scare Resource Theory and Sustainable Development Theory. To utilize the resources sustainablly in the world, we should limit the carbide emissions and protect the environment and the planet's limited resources under the guidance of Sustainable Development Theory. (2) Externality Theory. The deals in the CSM show the features of externality. To realize the external value of these deals and change them into the internal value, they should be put in the market and quantified, market-styled and valued in the process of utilization. (3) Coase Theorem. We could better arrange the productive works and effectively control the waste discharge only in the case of requirement of property rights. (4) Pricing theory of Future and Option. The CSM can explore the reasonable price of carbon sequestration items by introducing of the price discovery function of future and option. It draws that the CSM belongs to the complex system after analyzing these theories comprehensively. We should establish China CSM using the guidance of Complex Adaptive System theory combined China's specific national conditions.This research defines the system agent of CSM after clearly analyzing the complexity of CSM, namely the Buyer, Seller, Carbon Sequestration Projects and Market Surveillance Centre. The constraint of CSM are multiple, not only the restrictions from economy, social culture and law environment, but also the intervention of the authorities, as well as the interruption of uncertainty on the market. Each agent would like maximizing the profit and utility during the process of gaming amongst the system agents. Taking into consideration of the dynamic adaptive system of each gaming agent, this research inspects the gaming process of the agents and pricing of Carbon Sequestration Items by introducing of Genetic Algorithm (GA).In the stage of simulation platform selection, this research simulates the Forest CSM using the sophisticated Swarm simulation technology in the system simulation field. The simulation results show that the price of carbon sequestration projects will maintain a certain amount after running a certain period, also the total assets and profits keep accelerating as time goes by. However, the efficiency of market surveillance centre fluctuates since it suffers the factor of system risk, market speculation and so on. It requires the enhancement of the market surveillance and investment of the different aspects, and then it can reach the goal of stability of running a CSM. Then the research argues that carbon sequestration projects traded in the market can bring much more profits compared to the contract projects based on the example of forest carbon sequestration project in Sichuan Daduhe area, and the establishment of China CSM is the requirement of market economy operation.Finally, this research evaluates the reliability of the system simulation in CSM using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Based on Accelerated Genetic Algorithm (AGA-FAHP), proves the credibility of simulation results, and indicates the inefficiency of this research in the perspective of simulation technology. In terms of the research prospects, the thesis proposes that the future study of China CSM should combine the information technology, system science, eco-social science and so on.