China's Oil Development Policy Modeling And Simulation Based On Complex Adaptive System

From 2002, China's dependence on import oil is rising, and it is difficult to significantly increase domestic oil production, so oil industry faces many problems. It is needed that China's oil development policies are constantly adjusted in order to promote the rapid development of oil industry and transformation of energy structure. Therefore, researching oil development policy is of great strategic significance to improving the efficiency of developing domestic oil, the capacity of oil production and supply and enhancing oil security.The thesis also used a quantitative analysis and system point of view to discuss oil development policy system in addition to the traditional macro-qualitative method. China's oil development policy system is studied on the basis of researching the theory of complex adaptive system and analyzing the mapping relations between China's oil development policy system and complex adaptive system.Then a model of oil development is established using simulation platform Swarm of complex adaptive system to simulate the behavior and rules of different agents and the main effect of oil development policy. It are analyzed and studied how the government's macro-control changes the micro behavior and rules and according to observing the changes of the microscopic behavior under different types of oil development policy. It are explored how the government's macro-control causes the changes of agents' micro behavior or rules and how the individual micro-behavior or rules cause the whole macro emergence phenomena and the ties between the micro behavior or rules and the macro phenomena or the law. All these provide a frame of reference for the oil industry making reasonable oil development policy.The analysis of different experimental results showed that the change of government resources tax have large influence on manufacturers'activation of developing oil, thereby affecting the business of dealers and petrochemical companies;And value-added tax have larger influence on manufacturers'activation of developing oil, thereby affecting the business of dealers and petrochemical companies;And tax impacts largely dealers and petrochemical companies in the market participation, and relatively smaller impact on manufacturers.This distribute to the dealers and petrochemical companies'"anti-competitive" weaker capacity compared with the manufacturers'.Increasing the number of petrochemical companies and oil supply or reserves is a certain regulatory role for oil prices rising too fast, and the micro profits of the petrochemical company can be seen at the same time. Therefore, it is an effective method to ensure relative balance of oil supply and demand, to control rapid rise in oil prices and one of regulation policies establish a stable, fair competition and healthy developing oil market that and the government appropriately relaxes "access" provisions for dealers and petrochemical companies, let them participate in the market more, and treats different business regulatory policies according to the nature of the different implementation in oil industry.This thesis has established a bridge to study the system of oil development from the micro into the macro world. Wish this research provide a relatively new method and research base for further quantitative analysis in future.