| The status of construction cost of power grid project is analyzed at home and abroad. Points out the shortages of traditional assessment methods of construction costs risk of power grid project. According to the definition, factors, characteristics and measuring methods of risks, summarizes the risk management process. Influencing factors of risks of construction costs of power grid project are got. Brief introduction of the traditional risk assessment methods, such as analytic hierarchy process, factors analysis, grey correlation analytical method, fuzzy comprehensive evolution method, and Monte Carlo method. Mainly introduces fuzzy influence diagram (FID) method based on fuzzy set theory and influence diagram theory, and presents the mathematical thinking of FID.Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into FID to evaluate construction costs risk of power grid project, and the basic principles and evaluation method of FID were presented. An application of the presented method for evaluation of construction costs risk of power grid project. The method can be widely applicable although only power grid project is analyzed.FID method not only can overcome the shortage of the traditional methods, but also overcome the difficulties of getting probability in engineering background. FID is a larger application prospect in assessment methods of construction cost risk. Considering the project phases and the value of money, FID with the multi-stage and super value node remains to be further research. |
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