The Research On Financial Crisis Alert Model For Chinese Quoted Company

Listed company's financial problem is a problem for all sectors, a priority is the ability to affect the national security of the secondary market financing is an important component.A company if financial problems arise, the parties then this will definitely have adverse impact the market.The interests of all relevant aspects of the securities markets are expected to have a very precise way all the listed companies on the comprehensive evaluation.This requires that the financial index of listed companies to analyze end up with a mature system of listed companies in financial crisis is about to warning prompted a crisis in the listed company before the one to two years to give the market to suggest that this is the financialcrisis early warning system.This prediction method has high academic value and practical value.China's securities market has just started, have not yet entered a mature stage, the more need for such a system to help the gradual improvement of China's securities market to gradually improve China's financial security, a fundamental solution to our financing of the question.Framework of this paper is as follows:Firstly, the listed companies on the domestic and international early warning system of financial crisis, the relevant literature is reviewed and summarized and briefly evaluated.Secondly, the paper listed the definition of the financial crisis, and briefly describes the basic characteristics of the financial crisis.Thirdly, select the study sample.Listed company in the selection, this selection of 35 new 2010 ST companies as the financial crisis occurred in the study sample companies, and in accordance with "the same industry, scale is similar to" standard selected pair compare with the listed companies.In the sampling data, considering the accuracy of prediction model, and the information content of various financial indicators have some of timeliness, this paper is processed ST listed company the year before, that the annual report of 2009 data.Financial indicators in the selected samples, the article does not and can not be included in all financial indicators are among the forecast model system.This paper is to select a larger correlation with the financial crisis of several financial indicators.These indicators are: accounts receivable turnover ratio, liquidity asset turnover, inventory turnover, total assets, current ratio, debt ratio, quick ratio, net profit margin of operating income, earnings per share and total net assetsmargin of ten indicators.In addition to the ten selected financial indicators, have also introduced two non-financial indicators.Judging from the domestic and foreign research on China's listed company's financial crisis early warning system, most people are through the analysis of financial indicators, while for non-financial indicators of the study also relatively small.This article will introduce non-financial indicators to forecast system which is hoped this will help to improve the accuracy of prediction model.Finally, in the second screening of the indicators, we use the most typical statistical methods, namely Logistic regression analysis of listed companies financial distress prediction system for analysis.Final conclusion can be: in the system of listed companies forecast the financial crisis, the use of Logistic regression model, after the introduction of non-financial indicators, enabling the accuracy of prediction model system be improved to some extent.This shows that the introduction of non-financial indicators of financial distress prediction of listed companies in the system model can be improved even further improve the accuracy of prediction model.