| Under the background that the international economy gradually recoveries from the global financial crisis,the synchronization of economic growth declines,and the economic growth has been polarized around the world,and under the impact of the global financial events such as the European debt crisis and Brexit,the global financial environment will be affected,and the economic entities will face more risks.Under the circumstances of increasing international economic risks,China relies on the policy of all-round opening up,and has externally implemented the “the Belt and Road policy” enhance the cooperation in regional economy,and promote consumption at home by updating conomic structure,deleveraging and reducing excess inventory.thus reflecting the transformation of China’s economy from high speed development to high quality development.The significance of this study was to build a new econometric model by introduce global financial factor,and improve the insufficient that the preparation method of financial conditions index was simple,make the theory of financial conditions index be abundant,apply to the new financial and economic situation,under the risk of home and abroad become complex,it is important for policy makers to provide effective policy indicator.The first chapter of this paper will start from the current international economic environment and domestic economic situation,analysis and make the summary of the results that previous domestic and foreign research.The second chapter introduces the model derivation process and constructs the theoretical model,and constructs the calculation model and method of China’s BFDFCI,proposes and measures China’s broad flexible dynamic financial condition index(BFDFCI).the third Chapter measure China broad flexible dynamic financial conditions index,starting from the selected data,shows that the theory of selecting data,to solve the problem of China’s economic development,to select five categories of data from the interest rate,credit,money supply,housing and stock prices and the global financial factor,a total of 30 financial indicators,then extracted respectively from the selected data of six common structural factor,after deal wiht the common structural factor,then run the results of data analysis.The forth chapter analysis the relationship between China broad flexible dynamic financial conditions index and inflation,at the same time to test its effectiveness,this paper will build another financial conditions index that dose not include the global financial factors,other treatment measure are the same,then we will compare BFDFCI to NFDFCI.The last chapter draws a briefconclusion and policy recommendations.The prediction effect of the two indexes on inflation is tested mainly from the leading,correlation and causality of the two indexes on inflation,and draw the conclusion tha which index is more effective.The results show that,BFDFCI is superior to that without global financial silver included in terms of leading,relevance,causality and so on.It is a more effective predictor of inflation.afterwards,compared with other similar FCI studies,BFDFCI has the characteristics of flexible weight and time-varying,so its effect is better than the existing studies.When calculating the weights of six factors,we find that the weights of global financial factors have always been in the first place after the world financial crisis,which indicates that the deepening integration of global economy and the gradually bigger influence on economy of one country made by the global finance have become important factors that can not be ignored.The main innovation of this paper lies in the introduction of structural factor augmentation(SFA)to construct a new econometric model,which is MI-TVP-SV-SFAVAR,to adapt to the new situation of China’s economic.but there is still insufficient data selection,unable to fully describe the economic influencing factors. |
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