Early-warning For SMEs Financial Crisis Based On Logistic Model

With the development of social economic and improvement of socialist market economy system, small and medium enterprises pay more attention to the national economy and become an important force in our society. Whilesmall and medium enterprises exist a lot of risk, and the key risk is financial risk. Especially in the depression background, the phenomenon that the overall strength is not strong and weak ability against economic risk is common in small and medium enterprises. Since the economic crisis, many enterprises went bankruptcy, and small and medium enterprises are the first to be affected. Increasingly rigorous financial problem became one of the important factor that restraints the growing of small and medium enterprises.First, this paper introduces the current research status of financial predict model from domestic and foreign scholars on the financial, and then reviews someinnovations and development trend in financial predict model with non-financial variables, and points out that the direction of the research in this paper. Secondly this paper discusses the concept of the financial crisis and the theoretical basisforthefinancialcrisis,andthenanalysesthenon-financial variables.Specially,itintroducestheoreticalbasisthatusingequity structure, directorateinformationandaudit adviceasthevariablesoffinancial predict model.Thethird part is researchdesign. We introducetheempirical method toselectthevariablesandsamples, and the empiricalmethodsandempirical models. The fourth part builds up the predict model based financial variables and the predict model based on financial&non-financial variables by Logistic model after paired T test, Wilcoxon paired test and principal component analysis. And then we compare the two models to prove the non-financial variables can improve de Predict ability of the financial predict model. At last, we summarize the empirical results and the shortcomings of our Study.