| With the development of national economy and improvement of living conditions, the people demand for communication services is increasing last decade , and the deepening of the telecommuniacations industry reform and reorganization and the reducing continually of telecommunications charges stimulate the rapid growth of the customer group and business, the competition between telecommunications profession is acute more and more .Since reorganization of telecommunications enterprise on Sep. 30th, 2008 ,the market competition is more acute, the choose opportunity is more and more much , the contest for customer between telecommunications enterprises tends to more acute. The operators use the "Price strategy" to get much customer resources , but it causes a lot of customers often switch the operator each other , it doesn't get a number of ner customers but at the same time the operator pays out the high cost , which directly causes the stability of customer and the income is reducing step by step . The phenomenon "Much In Much Out" is serious ,it causes the high off-line rate is always not decreasing , the customers of middle and high level continue to be lost , the customer structure is low end.In the environment of existing customer market , the "Much In Much Out" directly causes the marketing cost is excessive consumption,the lost of middle and high level customers ,decreasing income and more wasted marketing resources. So the group decides to set up the system support means in the condition of high attention to marketing in order to make full use of business advantages , and increase the adhesiveness to customer , satisfaction and precondition of off-line. The importance of work is to make the customer life cycle as basis, not only active careful service during the whole preocess , but also carry out working and achieve the purpose of enhance customer perception and adhesiveness,decrease the off-line rate and lost of middle and high level customer,increasing the value by the means of focusing on service cutomer,intensive blending business development,deposit maintenance,value added service recommendation, contact expires to renewal,lost warning and retaintion and so on.This treatise introduces the maintenance and retaintion system of JiLin Telecom Company in detail, based on survey the current development trend of telecommunications enterprise maintenance and retaintion, involved myself in the project of maintenance and retain in JiLin Telecom ompany as example, integrate the relative knowledge of statistics and data mining, according to the topics background of treatise, current status analysis, the goal of system building and principle need to be followed, interface design and structure of system, thinking of data model building and relative technology application, scene of maintenance and retaintion, science procedure, every function of system.To improve the targeted marketing and the operational efficiency of maintenance business procedure and the analysis level and accuracy and effectivity of marketing and maintenance, which is as building goal in the maintenance and retaintion system of JiLin Telecom Company. Based on following "Five Distinguish"-the standard customer in detail(Distinguish according to ARPU, customer pre-deposits, customer contact expires date or always installment on line, grouping of different consumer behavior, population statistics or social attribute), for multi-channel(normal customer, business hall, 10000, the center of calling, agents and so on), carry out the activity"Fine puss One"(Widen, Reinforcement, Add V, Add production, increasing pre-deposits), enhance customer perception and adhesiveness,decrease the off-line rate and lost of middle and high level customer,increasing the value.IT system of Jilin Telecom Company is composed by the system workgroup of MSS(Management Support System), BSS(Business Support System), OSS(Operation Support System)and EDA(Enterprise Data Application). BSS system includes CRM(Customer Relationship Management)system, Billing system and settled system, relative system involved in IT support of maintenance and retaintion system, relative system of EDA workgroup. IT support of maintenance and retaintion system includes the function of execution class and data class on marketing maintenance. The function of execution class and data class on marketing maintenance is achieved by improving or replenish the relative functure of CRM; The function of data class on marketing maintenance is achieved through the marketing maintenance data in EDA workgroup support subsystem. The marketing maintenance data support subsystem is responsible for analysis of marketing maintenance, plan and result estimate; CRM is responsible for the execution of marketing maintenance activity. The data share between the marketing maintenance data supports the subsystem and CRM system is achieved by the management of data share(Two kinds of share: one is initative to transfer data according to the specified rule; the other is initative to submit a requirement of data share, the marketing maintenance data supports the subsystem responses the requirement, supply the data shard to CRM system), thus generates the completed support to closed-loop process of marketing maintenance. According to the above structure, the system need build the following interfaces:(1) Date interface between system and(Enterprise Data Warehouse)/ODS(Operational Data Store).(2) Date acquisition interface between system and integrate account system.(3) Date supply interface between system and the system of charge and payment, settlement of prevince, customer service.(4) Manual date input interface.Because the maintenance for customer is manual completed by customer manager on the first line, the current resources decide all of the 1,300,000 internet mobile customers and 400,000 broadband customers could not be maintained one by one. Based to the above status, the system makes the actual customer data from Dec. 2010 to Feb. 2011 as the data during observation period, The derivation method of trend property and rate variable defines the main reason on internet stability of effects the middle and high level customers of Net C and broadband custoemrs(56 and 21) is as derivation variable, and regression according to logic. The model building by decision tree, random forest defines the order of variable, and threshold according to the median concept, then work out one set of regular medol which affects the customer internet stability. After calculated the model:From the situation of probability is more than 0.65, for warning model of Net C middle and high level customers, the corresponding recall ratio and precision ratio are respectively 46.45% and 78.68%.Now the predictive ability compared with the customer situation of random collection improved 23.2 times.From the situation of probability is more than 0.7, for warning model of broadband photo customer, the corresponding recall ratio and precision ratio are respectively 77.57% and 44.22%.Now the predictive ability compared with the customer situation of random collection improved 48.66 times.The maintenance and retaintion system of JiLin Telecom Company solidified the precedure of scientific maintenance and retaintion, achieved the following function closed-loop and the purpose of maintenance:(1) Through the customer understanding ability enhancement, to achieve locking the target customer.(2) Through the marketing maintenance plan ability enhancement, to achieve matching maintenance policy.(3) Through the cooperative ability in multi-channel enhancement, to provide the channel distribution task execution ability.(4) Through the support ability enhancement during executing, to provide the convenient support for customer manager.(5) Through result estimate ability enhancement, to promote the optimization of maintenance work.According to the whole system building, the target of our province maintenance and retaintion promoted and the customer off-line rate decreased drastically than the beginning of this year. |
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