Study On The Reasonable Scale Of Urban Land Based On Land Price

With the great improvement of China's urbanization level, the urban land area becomes larger and larger and expansion speed also gets faster and faster. On one hand, the increase of urban land scale plays a certain role in promoting urban construction as well as social and economic development. On the other hand, the increasing occupation of cultivated land resources puts huge pressure on the cultivated land protection. The pursuit of excessive city land scale can cause waste of land resources and loss of farmland. While, the shortage of urban land can restrict the development of the city in some extent and may result in densely populated, traffic jam as well as high land price phenomena. Rational calculation of urban land scale has attracted more and more attention of experts, scholars and the related government department. As the value judgment criterion and sensitive barometer reflecting land's supply and demand relation, land price plays a strong indication role in the expansion of urban land. With the high and low changes, urban land scale tends towards market equilibrium and reaches a relatively rational state. The in-depth study of reasonable urban land use scale under land price level helps enrich theory methods about land price and urban land use scale and improves urban land use efficiency to the greatest extent as well as the level of land intensive use.The present study is base on the National Natural Science Foundation Project "Research on Rational Scale of Urban Land Use Base on Spatial and Temporal Variation of Land Price Level" (serial number:40871053). With the guidance of land rent, land price, urban growth and system theory, the present study makes use of SPSS software to conduct relevant analysis about urban land price and land use scale and presents common influencing factors after the in-depth understanding of land price level and urban land use scale's space-time evolution laws in Shijiazhuang City. The present study also explores the influence mechanism of land price to rational scale of urban land use,adopts a possible-satisfaction model to predict rational scale of urban land use of Shijiazhuang in 2012 under constraint conditions of many factors and attempts to construct "land price-land use scale" model for making predictions about land use scale. Through comparative analysis, the present study aims to verify the feasibility of land price level's predictions about rational scale of urban land use. Research conclusions are as follows:(1)During 1998～2008, the land price level of Shijiazhuang displays dynamic increasing tendency. The land price level changes in different periods:during 1998～2003, it increases slowly; during 2004～2006, its growth rate soars; during 2007～2008 growth slows. The ranges of land price change due to different uses are different:the increase rate of commercial land price is the largest, followed by residence, industry. Different location's price changes are different:land price space presents encircling structure. From city center to urban peripheral, the land price levels gradually reduce. The land price growth rate in southeast direction of Shijiazhuang is far higher than other directions.(2) From 1998 to 2008, the urban land use scale in Shijiazhuang presents ever-increasing trend. Land use scale changes are different in different periods:from 1998 to 2002, the urban land use of Shijiazhuang grows smoothly with an average annual growth; from 2003. to 2006, the area of urban land use surges with faster rate; from 2007～2008 the growth rate begins to slow down. The expansion of Shijiazhuang land use is mostly in southeast direction.(3) The urban land price of Shijiazhuang significantly associated with urban land use scale. The correlation coefficients of urban land scale with comprehensive, residential and commercial land price are respectively 0.945,0.949 and 0.916. The economy, population, policy and planning factors are common influencing factors of urban land price and urban land scale changes. Urban land price's effect on rational scale of land use is mainly manifested in such aspects:urban land use scale and land expansion, the intensive degree of urban land utilization and reasonable layout of urban land use.(4) In short time series, it is feasible and operational to make predictions by use of "land price-land use scale" model about rational scale of urban land use. Only considering the land price, the urban land use scale of Shijiazhuang in 2012 is 231km2. Based on multi-objective decision-making system, the prediction of rational scale of urban land use ranges from226～240km2.235km2 around is the most reasonable. Comparative analysis of two models and results, "land price-land use scale" model is more easy to understand.