The Ecological Security Dynamic Evolution And Simulation Of Coastal Cities

Ecological security is interdependent, it interconnects with national defense military security, political security and economic security. In recent years, as human pressure caused by the geographical environment, the study on ecological security increasingly becomes the focus and is noticed by scholars. The current research on ecological security is about the concept of ecological security, ecological security evaluation, eco-system health assessment, ecological risk assessment, early warning of ecological security and ecological security maintenance and management. The simulation of ecological security and how to handle the relationship between ecological security problems within the system should cause more attention of the scholars home and abroad. Ecological security is an important guarantee for social development, through the ecological security of subsystems within the system, we can understand the relationship among population, resources, environment and the socio-economic systems within the ecological security system, and then provide basic theoretical foundation for the sustainable development .The paper studies the ecological security evaluation index system in coastal cities, taking Dalian as an example, use the pressure-state-response (P-S-R) evaluation framework, evaluate the ecological security status of Dalian from 1997 to 2007, the result is that the index of the security state in 1997 is 0.38, by the year 2007, it rise to 0.61, overall security has improved continuously. Based on the results of this evaluation, use the system dynamics model (SD model), from the environment subsystem, resources subsystem, population subsystem and socio-economic subsystem, establish the ecological safety system dynamics model of Dalian City, to simulate the evolution of regional ecological security mechanism. The simulation results show that: from 2008 to 2030 the overall trend of ecological security system is upward (0.45to0.92). Supposing that other systems develop well, as the time goes, the ecological security index of environment subsystem rises (0.41 to 0.99), the ecological security index of resources subsystem descends (0.69 to 0.24), the ecological security index of population subsystem rises (0.35 to 0.83), the ecological index of socio-economic subsystem rises (0.087 to 0.96), too.This paper not only provides methods for regional ecological security quantitative research and ecological security dynamic development research, but also supports scientific basis for the study of Liaoning coastal economic belt.