The Research On Dynamic Simulation Of Ecological Security System In Coastal Tourist Urban

The ecological security in coastal tourist city has been becoming focused,for the special geographical location,the fragile ecosystem,the important economic and social status,and comprehensive benefits of tourism.Through reading the research literature,tiny research was found for development tendency about ecological security in coastal tourist city.The question about ecological security in coastal tourist city deserves more attention than it has received.By means of system dynamics method,this article discusses the ecological security system in Dalian in China.A causal loops diagram and a system dynamics model describe the relationship between dynamic factors such as oceanic pollution,tourist income,scale of tourists.The relatively optimal solution was confirmed through the model simulation.Meanwhile,the proposals and countermeasures were put forward.And the specific work process is as follows:Firstly,related research about ecological security and coastal tourist city had been combed.The concepts of ecological security,coastal tourist city and the ecological security in coastal tourist city had been defined.These laid the foundation of this article research.After that,based on coastal tourist urban ecological security system structure,this article has divide the three subsystems(tourism industry economy subsystem,tourism culture subsystem,marine resources and environment subsystem),constructed the dynamical model of coastal tourist urban ecological security system utilizing system dynamics approach,on the historical data of Dalian from 2001 to 2015.The dynamical model was used to simulate the data of Dalian from 2016 to 2030.This paper checked the authenticity of Dalian ecological security model with the relevant statistical data.The simulated results are compared with historical values,which shows good agreement and suggests that,the model can be used in system simulation.The paper simulated three different development scenarios of coastal tourist ecological security in Dalian by adjusting and controlling main parameters in the model.Industrial Output Value of a Share of GDP,Treatment Rate of Marine Industrial Pollution,Disposal Rate of Marine Life Pollution,Urban Infrastructure Investment as a Share of GDP and Tertiary Industry Investment as a Share of GDP were selected as control variables for Dalian coastal tourism ecological security system simulation.The scenario 1 is a general continuation of the current development conditions without any additional policy benefits.Scenario 2 increased investment in environmental protection as well as adjusted industrial structure.Scenario 3 paid more attention to the immediate economics.According to the states of the tourism quantity,tourism income,marine environment pollution index and tourism resources index,the coastal tourist ecological security system in Dalian in scenario 2 is in the healthiest state.In scenario 2,the industrial output value of a share of GDP is 0.35,the treatment rate of marine industrial pollution is 0.85,the disposal rate of marine life pollution is 0.9,the urban infrastructure investment as a share of GDP is 0.02,the tertiary industry investment as a share of GDP is 0.4.In scenario 2,the tourism resources index,the tourism quantity and the tourism income continue to grow and the increasing rate is obviously higher than the rate in scenario 1 and scenario 2.The marine environment pollution index still grows,but the level of growth will be less than that in the other two scenarios.Finally,based on the conclusions,the policy recommendations were proposed.It is necessary to increase the environmental governance investment and strengthen the city's infrastructure construction and pay attention to the farsighted development.