Fuzzy Logic-based Software Development Project Risk Assessment Study

The risk existing in the software project development process are very complicated, the phenomenon of project delay and out of budget is widespread. Therefore, proceeding with risk analysis and evaluation, selecting the most beneficial project for the company before the development of project is primary also key step for the success of project development.Fuzzy logic is an effective way of dealing with uncertainty. This article seeks to apply fuzzy inference mechanism to the software risk assessment, set required fuzzy rules for project evaluation and develop the assessment framework for software project based on the principles of Fuzzy Logic, with the purpose of dealing with the uncertainty and complexity of software risk, providing a new means for project selection and risk management. At last, the article introduces the method of extending the assessment model for practical application.This paper focuses on the risk identification and analysis before the development of a software project, the structure of thesis is as follows:The first chapter: introduction. This chapter summarizes the background and the importance of the software risk assessment, introduces the research purpose, meaning, innovation and thoughts of the paper.The second chapter: theoretical foundation, including the theory of Fuzzy Logic and software risk management. The former part summarizes the history, significance, basic principles of Fuzzy Logic and the structure of Fuzzy Logic System, the second part summarizes the definition, meaning, classification of risk, the basic components of risk management process and the existing risk analysis, evaluation methods.The third chapter: modeling. This chapter introduces the structure of software risk with considering the inter-impact by risk identification and summary, defines fuzzy rule base through analyzing the logical relationship between risk factors based on Fuzzy Logic principles, and finally sets up the project assessment model. The forth chapter is the research of a realistic software development project.This chapter validates the effectiveness of the risk assessment method proposed in the paper through risk scenario simulation using MATLAB, which is based on the characteristics of the realistic project.The fifth chapter reviews the whole thesis, puts forward some recommendations and the directions of further study.