Impact Of The Shaanxi Province Of Rural Surplus Labor Empirical Analysis

At present, the total sum of the Shannxi countryside surplus labor force is very large, the quantity of countryside surplus labor force has to be improved. the author tried to reveal the factors that affect the transferring of countryside surplus labor force and to reference the foundations of making policies for pushing on transferring Shannxi countryside surplus labor force.On discussion of surplus rural labor force transfer, there are series of mature theory created at home and abroad. However, most of the overseas related theories didn't coincide with the reality of China. Most of the researchers at home are focus on the regional statistics rather than domestic ones. In Shannxi province we are lacking of the regional statistics of our own which is worth of further researches.After a delicate comparison and analysis of the sound theories at home and abroad, the author analyzes the factors influenced the transfer of surplus rural labor force in Shannxi and holds that the widening income gap accelerate the shift of surplus rural labor force remarkably; the obstacle which hold the transfer of surplus rural labor force was that the lagging transformation of industrial structures can't keep pace with the time and the cities can't afford enough jobs for surplus rural labor force; the shortage of natural sources and the surplus rural labors are the huge momentum for the transfer of surplus rural labor force; the low quality of surplus rural labor force is main obstacle for the smooth transfer of surplus rural labor force; and there is less occupations for the surplus rural labor force because of the high unemployment rate in cities, on the other hand the unhealthy development of the rural industry cause the transfer of surplus rural labor force unsmooth.After practical analyses of the reality about the transfer of surplus rural labor force in Shannxi, taking the present theories into consideration ,the author analyzes mechanism in which the above all factors affecting the transfer of surplus rural labor force, and give a clear explanation of all the factors which is the theoretical foundation for the empirical analysis.The fifth part of the thesis is empirical analysis part. According to the statistics in Shannxi from 1978 to 2006, the author and makes a conclusion through the econometric analyze. The author holds that there is a stead co integration relationship among all of the factors in long term. Especially, the per capital arable land area of the rural area holds biggest negative influence ,and the ratio of theⅡ,Ⅲindustry in GDP holds biggest positive influence for the transfer. However, the yearly widening income gap in shannxi casts little influence on the ratio of the transfer which is different from the whole country. And the transfer rate is positively correlated with the income gap between urban and rural areas,Ⅱ,ⅢIndustry GDP ratio, ratio of education level is negatively correlated with per capita arable land area and urban unemployment rate which coincide with our theoretical expectations.On the base of empirical analysis, the author came to her own conclusion in the end, and put forward her suggestions in order to promote the transfer of surplus rural labor force in Shannxi province.