Research On Early Warning Index System Of Bubble Economy

In the process of market economy development,with the diversification and innovation of financial instruments,the liberalization and internationalization of financial markets,the bubble economy has become more and more frequent.From the Japanese bubble economy in the 1990s to the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,human beings have repeatedly learned the trauma of the bubble economy to the entire economy and society.In recent years,the issue of the bubble economy has aroused great concern and research by scholars.The research mainly focuses on the causes and effects of the bubble economy,and there are few aspects related to early warning.However,the early warning of the bubble economy is the compass for the healthy operation of the macro economy and the "wall of separation" to prevent the formation of the bubble economy.Therefore,research on the early warning of the bubble economy is quite necessary.Studies have shown that the formation of a bubble economy is premised on the asset price bubbles that have already appeared in the market.Based on this,this paper takes the evolution process of asset bubble to bubble economy as the starting point,and builds a bubble economy early warning indicator system.First of all,this paper sorts out the domestic and international concepts related to the bubble economy and the aspects of early warning,and clarifies the current research status of the bubble economy.Secondly,on the basis,of the macro-micro level analysis of the formation process of the bubble economy,the theoretical early warning indicators are selected from the transmission mechanism of the asset price bubble to the bubble economy,and the non-parametric test m ethod is used to test the validity of the theoretical early warning indicators..The test results show that the early warning indicators based on the theory of bubble economic evolution are scientific and effective.Thirdly,with the United States as the research object,based on the effective index,the weight coefficient of the early warning index is determined by the coefficient of variation method,the mean square error method,the correlation coefficient method and the CRITIC method.At the same time,the vector autoregressive model is used to determine the lag of the early warning index.The number of periods,and then the synthetic bubble economy warning index.On this basis,a bubble economy early warning system was established in combination with the demarcation of the police section and early warning signal system,and the operational state of the US bubble economy over the years was analyzed.In addition,based on the current situation of China’s economic bubble,the same method is used to construct China’s bubble economy early warning system.The results show that the bubble economy early warning system can well describe the operation state of China"s bubble economy,and the results are in line with the reality.Finally,the countermeasures against the bubble economy are proposed from the asset price bubble to the transmission mechanism of th e bubble economy.The research results of this paper have the following points:First,the four early warning indicators based on the wealth effect,investment effect,financial accelerator effect and monetary policy effect in the process of bubble economy evolution are scientific and effective.Second,the bubble economy early warning index constructed with the lag of indicators can effectively describe the operating state of the bubble economy.The bubble economy early warning system established by using the police segmentation method and early warning signal system can effectively identify the bubble economy.This study not only enriches the theor etical system of the bubble economy,but also provides a certain reference for the government and relevant management departments to deal with the risk of bubble economy.