Changes In China's Urban Housing Prices Of Goods And Empirical Research

China's house market has experienced great changes since its cancellation of the 1998, with an overall increase in urban house investment, house sales, as well as commodity house price of which, in some cities, the accelerating speed amounts to 20 per cent annually. The too-quickly rising trend of commodity house price not only extremely influences city dweller's living conditions, but also is an unstable element for the macroeconomics' smooth and sustained development. At the same time, the problem of commodity house price has received enough attention from the government, enterprises, professionals and specialists, and mass media. Unfortunately, however, recent studies on the country's house market and commodity house price have confined themselves to general qualitative analysis. The lack of quantitative analysis and empirical study, and the resulting absence of reliable analyzing tools and modeling simulation have made it hardly possible for people to know clearly what factors commodity house price is sensitive to and how these factors influence commodity house price. Even worse, as a result of such theoretical deficiency, decision making becomes rather difficult in departments concerned and real estate developing companies due to unavailability of effective scientific grounds and technical support. At the same time, effective instructions are not available to consumers and investors in the market. Analyzing approaches and tools in researching the law of commodity house price fluctuation can't even be found. All these will brought negative effects on the healthy and sustainable development of the nation's house industry.In this background, targeting urban commodity house price, this dissertation, first, on the foundation of the related researches native and abroad, elaborates commodity house price's concepts, features and components. Then, describes the fluctuation of house price, and uses Quadratic curve fitting the path of real house price fluctuation. According to the analysis of the influence factors of urban commodity house price in demand and supply aspects, we sets up a multitude regression model of the relation between urban commodity house price and its main influence factors. And through the empirical analysis, we infers the affection degree and the affection direction of per capital disposable income of urban households, urban population, land price, cost of houses completed and lending rate that affected the price of urban housing in China. Results of the empirical research indicate that cost factors, especially land price have a decisive influence on urban commodity house price, per capital disposable income has an obvious lag effect on urban commodity house price, urban population and lending rate have an unobvious influence on urban commodity house price. In final, we forecast the tendency of urban commodity house price from three angles,for example, costs of house price, house demand and deeds of government and enterprises, then put forward a series of macro-control policy suggestions such as innovating land system, adjusting supply of land resources, restraining and standardizing land auction deeds, carrying out macro-control in all fields, establishing the public real estate information system to make the information more clear.