Analysis Of Factors Influencing The Fluctuation Of Commodity Housing Prices In Hangzhou Based On VAR Model

In recent years,the rapid development of China’s real estate industry,while promoting economic development,has also produced a series of problems,the irrational rise of high house prices is one of them.Regarding the rapid rise of housing prices,governments at all levels in China have also issued a series of control policies,but they have either yielded little or no long-term results.Many scholars at home and abroad have devoted themselves to the study of factors affecting house prices.Through research,we can find that the housing price is affected by many factors such as the level of economic development,the number of population,the level of interest rates,the money supply,the industrial structure,the urbanization process,real estate investment,the consumer price index,unemployment rate,and disposable income of residents.Because there are many influencing factors,the influencing process is also very complicated,and the real estate market has obvious regional characteristics.The real estate markets in different regions have their own different characteristics,which need to be adjusted according to local conditions based on the results of the research survey.Therefore,this paper makes a theoretical analysis and empirical research on the influencing factors of housing prices in Hangzhou,a typical city in the Yangtze River Delta,hoping to provide reference and suggestions for the real estate market regulation of Hangzhou and the surrounding cities in the similar development level and similar development status with Hangzhou.After sorting out relevant research at home and abroad,this article starts with the concept and connotation of real estate prices.Based on the market supply-demand equilibrium theory and the joint changes of the real estate incremental market and the stock market,the formation mechanism of real estate prices under market competition and supply-demand relations is analyzed.After that,factors that may affect the price of commercial housing in Hangzhou are classified,such as economic development level,money supply,financial interest rates,inflation,industrial structure,local finance,urbanization rate,population growth and age,residential housing level,unemployment,etc.Qualitative analysis based on supply,demand and environment.The qualitative analysis identified the data indicators used to characterize each factor,and then conducted an empirical analysis based on official data.The empirical analysis mainly uses grey correlation analysis to sort different data indicators according to the degree of correlation with housing prices.After determining the major factors with greater correlation,the VAR model is used for further analysis.Finally,based on the results of qualitative analysis and empirical analysis,this paper makes targeted suggestions for the stability of Hangzhou house prices.