Food Preservation Aseptic Packaging Material Forecast And Risk Assessment,

With the living standards of the people being elevated, milk has become anecessity in their life. For a long period of time, "raw milk" available in cities, whichwas never been sterilized and pasteurized, has greatly endangered the health of thepeople due to its excessive residue of bacteria, fertilizer and heavy metal; asepticpackaging has become an inevitable trend for the development of the milk industry.However, the manufacturing technologies, devices and sale of such packagingmaterials have all been monopolized by such multi-national companies as Tetra Pakand Combibloc. In China, they have capitalized on their technological monopoly toenjoy over 90％of the market share, causing the domestic packaging industry and milkindustry to face tremendous pressure. The specific state key sci-tech project, FoodKeep-fresh Aseptic Packaging Materials Project, undertaken by the Institute ofPolymer Materials of Sichuan University, has overcome all the technologicaldifficulties involved and successfully passed the milk-filling tests. At present, theSichuan Chuantai New Materials Sci-tech Industrial Company, jointly founded by theInstitute of Polymer Materials of Sichuan University and Chengdu Jincheng ChuntaiPaper Industrial Co., Ltd., has put into production, and realized the industrializationprocess of the food keep-fresh aseptic packaging materials project.A forecast of this project has been made on the basis of its current development,with a view to the progress tendency of domestic milk industry and by means ofanalysis of investment in food keep-fresh aseptic packaging materials.A system of risk evaluation indices specific to this project has been created withconsultation by representative high-level technological specialists and managerial anddecision-making experts from some industries and departments, bv means ofbibliographic review process and expert consultation process, and on the basis of insituinvestigation of this project. Expert consultation process and analytic hierarchy processhave been applied to determine the weight for each evaluation index.An evaluation model has been established thanks to fuzzy synthetic evaluationtechniques for risk evaluation of this project. Pursuant to the risk evaluation, conclusions and advices will be produced pertinentto the investment project.This paper is intended, with its forecast and risk evaluation of such a highlysci-tech project as relevant to food keep-fresh aseptic packaging materials during itstranslation from technology into productivity, to let the R&D and investment unitshave a better understanding of forecast and risks in relation to an industrializationprocess and subsequently balance them, thus offering constructive advices on thedevelopment of highly sci-tech projects as well as a system of evaluation indices thatcould be referred to for evaluation of similar projects.