| Since the reform and opening up, people's living standard has been greatly improved. However the widening the gap among various industries has become increasingly prominent social contradictions. In order to improve this problem, we have to deeply and systemly resaerch it, reflecting its current sitiuation and factors, putting forward some positive countermeasures. It will be very inportant to narrow the gap among various industries.The article consists of 5 chapters:Chapter 1 is an introduction, which introduces the research background, the meaning of choosing such thesis, the research thoughts, the research methods, the main innovations, and the overview of relevant domestic and aboard research literatures; Chapter 2 and 3 are the theoretical basis of the whole research, which mainly introduce the theories about income disparties between diffirent industries and economic early-warning. In order to analyse the factors of inter-industry income disparity, the article goes from this 4 aspects:the character of the industry itself, the development of the industry, the segmentation of labor market, and the industry monopoly. Besides, we established an index system of inter-industry income disparity which is on the basis of previous analysis. Through the study of early-warning mechanism, we found that the income gap of the industry can start from the following aspects:defining the warning situation, finding the warning sources, analyzing the warning signs, determining the warning lines, pre-warning the degree. Chapter 4 is the subject throughout the study. First, analyse the status of the income gap between the industries of Zhejiang Province from the aspects of the absolute difference, the relative difference and the integrated difference by selecting the data from 1995-2008 as samples. Secondly, analyse the factors effected the income gap between industries by using the panel data model and select the labor productivity differences, industry output growth rate differences between the three indicators of monopoly as explanatory variables, in order to know different factors that influence the income gap between the industry level. Then, use the adjusted method of 3σto do the single index early-warning analysis and select theil index as warning situation indicator to do the analysis. Then, use factor analysis to do the early-warning comprehensive indicators analysis. By index selection, finally choosing labor productivity, the proportion of technical workers to all workers, the proportion of average profit, the proportion of industry output, industry employment share, the industry average size as 6 indicators to do the factor analysis to determine the indicators' weight and then divide the warning lines using the adjusted method of 3σand then determine the warning degree values. Finally, use exponential smoothing method and grey forecasting model respectively to forecast the warning degree values. Chapter 5 discusses the policy suggestions on how to decrease the income disparties between different industries based on the point of the income disparities between different industries and makes conclusion and propection of this paper.Through systematic analysis we get the following conclusions:The status of income disparties between different industries of Zhejiang Province is more serious than the national average level whether in absolute difference or in reletive difference. The theil index before 2001 is slightly lower than the national average level, but after 2001 the theil index is much higher than the national average level. This shows that the conditions in Zhejiang Province are more serious and the trend to expand is more rapidly. Looking into the inflution on income disparties, the labor productivity has significantly influenced the income gap of labor-intensive industry; the industry output has effected on different industries; while the factor of monopoly has a great impact on traditional monopolies. Therefore, we should take full account into the characteristics of different industries in the regulation of the income gap. The result of early-warning analysis shows that warning sitituation indicator is basically in the normal range before 2004; while after 2004 it is in the range between normal and abnormal but its value continues to increase, even close to extreme range. But warning signs show that in 2001-2008 the income gap between different industries in Zhejiang Province has been fluctuated from normal to abnormal range, with a great fluctuation in 2008.The result of economic forecast shows that the comprehensive warning value of the income gap between different industries in 2009 by exponential smoothing method is 2.352, which is in the abnormal range. While the integrated warning degree values of the income gap between different industries from 2009-2013 by the grey prediction model are 2.141,2.171,2.200,2.230,2.259, respectively. Although there is an inprovement for 2008, its trend shows larger and larger year by year.The main innovations of this paper are:Firstly, the research viewpoint of this paper is different with the usual systematic factors. Based on the distinctive factor of economic early-warning, with the income distribution of the specially designated Zhejiang Province as the research object. Secondly, this paper utilizes several statistic and econometrics analysis methods comprehensively to make systematic theoretical and empirical researches on the characteristics, forming mechanism and effects of income disparities between different industries, especially the part of economic early-waring, the paper uses both single indicator and composite indicators to analyse not only warning sitituation but also warning signs and forecasts the condition with the method of exponential smoothing and the grey prediction model. Thirdly, the paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system of the income gap between different industries, hoping to fulfill the theory of inter-industry income disparity. Fourthly, by taking the industries income distribution of Zhejiang province as the research object, this paper has some representative effect. Zhejiang has energetic economy and abundant industries types. With different economic system and income distribution mode coexists in Zhejiang, choosing the industries income distribution of Zhejiang as the specific research object not only conforms to national conditions of China, but also has good representative effect, which is helpful to have a better understanding of the characteristics and forming mechanism of China's income disparities between different industries, and thereby put forward the adjusting measures to the income disparities between different industries. |
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