Resources Of Medicinal Plants Early Warning System Model Testing And Improvement

The idea of sustainable development is the theme of the development of human being in the 21st century.And it is also the basic state policy.To pharmaceutical plants,with the rapid global decreasing of plant resources,the status of pharmaceutical plants also looks very cloudy.Since rapid development of Chinese traditional medicine industry and great international trade requirement, the requirement of pharmaceutical plants is increased in large extent.At present, Chinese medicine faces an increased demand for resources,wildlife ones diminishing and the crisis of sustainable development.The situation of the reserve, development and use of pharmaceutical plants is critical.Therefore,it is an important meaning to build the early-warning system of pharmaceutical plants for the development of Chinese medicine resources.The pharmaceutical plants which is related to botany,ecology,medicine and economics and it has its own special features.Many scholars have studied the sustainable development of forest,biotic and natural resources.But there is no systematic research on the early-warning system of Chinese medicine resources.The early-warning system of pharmaceutical plants is a key point for the modernization of traditional Chinese medicine.Firstly,the paper elaborated the background and significance of the research,and summarized the current study situation about Chinese medicine resources.Species,distribution as well as exploitation and utilization of Chinese medicinal plant resources are presented. Also makes a comparative analysis between the national and international research on the early-warning system.At present,it is an undoubted fact that the gap of supply and demand of Chinese medicine resources has become larger than before,production of Chinese medicine resources can not meet the market demand.This situation has a direct impact on national economic development and medical care and health.To early-warning system of pharmaceutical plant,there is little study about it in our country,in developed countries,the studies are not in open due to involving economy safety,national security and foreign strategy,therefore a useful model that can be used for reference for the study of early-alarming and prediction of pharmaceutical plants is not available.The paper does some pioneering work about study on supply and demand of the prediction and early-alarming of Chinese medicinal plant resources.Based on the method of combining theoretical analysis and substantial evidence analysis,the paper analysed the factors that influencing supply and demand of Chinese medicinal plant resources in detail,then selected the main supply and demand indicators to set up a foundation for the system of early-alarming and prediction of Chinese medicinal plant resources.Secondly,the status of the supply and demand of domestic liquorice is analyzed in order to establish the national early-warning system of Chinese medicine plant resources.According to the situation of the national production of liquorice,the supply quantum,the import quantum and the demand quantum are illustrated and the cause of the rapidly increasing of the demand quantum is discussed in recent years.About the forecast of the supply quantum,the gray model(1,1) of supply and demand of liquorice is established by applied the gray system theory,with the forecast results of the model,the error inspection of post-sample is tested and the model goes through it.The results are satisfactory. Based on the analysis of thought for the gray forecast model and the conditions, using the improved gray model(1,1) to predict the supply and demand of liquorice, the results implies that the improved gray model(1,1) has higher precision than the gray model(1,1).Using this model,the supply quantum is forecasted from 2002 to 2006 and the improved gray model(1,1) of the demand quantum is developed by the same way.The forecast is an important aspect of early-warning research,and it is also the basis of improving the early-warning management.In terms of the practical and feasible results of supply and demand of liquorice forecast,in comparison with gray forecast model,the improved gray model(1,1) is accurate.Finally,by using the method of the improved Gray model(1,1),the tendency of the supply and demand amounts of liquorice are forecasted and predicted from 2007 to 2016.According to the results,the paper calculated critical values of liquorice supply and demand alert limits,combining the suggestions of experts and the criterions of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,eventually designed the comprehensive warning limit value and warning degree interval,which provides an early warning of supply and demand of liquorice from 2007 to 2016.The suggestions and the ideas are advanced for constructing domestic future liquorice market with the result of the forecast and the warning,and referred as the gist of the health development of the liquorice market.In a word,through the macro and micro scope,with a theoretical and practical research method,putting forward to set up the early warning system of supply and demand of pharmaceutical plants,and demonstrate the fact that we should develop Chinese medicine resource sustainably.This is the first attempt to combine resources of pharmaceutical plants with the practical grey model (1,1),in order to find out a series of paths to protect and develop the resources of Chinese medicine.