Establish Algedonia Coclesalis Watker Forecasting Model And Early Warning System

China has the most kind of, area of, and reserves of bamboo all over the world. Due to the wood protection project in last two dacades, the growth of wood supply can not meet the rapid growth of needs. Bamboo, a kind of fast-grown plant with quality economic value is considered to be an ideal succedaneum to solve the problem. Therefore bamboo industy developed very fast in the following years. According to relevant statistics, the bamboo industy total out-put value in year 1998 reach to 12 billion. According to a bamboo developing programme, bamboo industy will be a leading industy of forestry in year 2050. However there are some restriction factors impact on the development, such as high intensive management, rapid growth of bamboo woods area with onefold management operation. In addition, abnormal climate, the decreasing relevant pests'natural enemies, the increasing pests damages and pests species harm to bamboo life as well.This research regarding the Algedonia coclesalis Watker which is the major pest damages Phyllostachys pubescens. In this research the collected data of insect situation and weather will be screened under the assistance of"SAS"(Statistical Analysis System), in order to obtain the dominant factor which can affect A.Watker reproductive behavior. And establish a forecasting model by the method of stepwise regression. Thereby zoning by comparison of A.Watker reproductive behavior,the insect damage degree and range and ecological environment background to monitoring and forecasting, with"3S"technology, internet network, database, modelbase and expert system, to establish an early warning system in order to make and implement preventive measures rapidly and give the technical support to sustainable controlling. This researching project will provide a quality assistance to the research of biological disaster in the future.