Discussion On Passenger Forecast Method Of Intercity Rail Transit In City Agglomeration

With the construction peak period of intercity rail transit in city agglomeration rapidly comes, the scientific study on passenger forecast method which is regarded as the first link of planning have closely connection with accuracy and feasibility of relevant project design,construction and running. Aiming at the problem that the study on passenger forecast of intercity rail transit is not deep in China and the Four.stage Method in Foreign Countries is not adopt to the Chinese Characteristic Socialism,this thesis study the characteristics of Chinese city agglomeration and intercity passenger, combining with even forecast practice,and explores a group Passenger Forecast Methods of Intercity Rail Transit adapting to the Chinese city agglomeration characteristics.First, the paper analysises the demand characteristics of intercity passenger in city agglomeration and the technical characteristics of intercity rail transit,and discusses the relationship between intercity rail transit and other transportation, establishes the function of intercity rail transit in city City Agglomeration. Second,from the perspective of Passenger forecast theory the paper study the intercity rail transit forecast methods and establishes the studying Technical Route. Third, the paper study Passenger Forecast Methods and steps of Intercity Rail Transit in City Agglomeration.Adopting the OD survey as the main method and the OD estimation as the auxiliary method,the status OD matrix is Constructed;Using elastic coefficient method to forecast the Passenger Flow Generation; Useing dual.constrained gravity model to forecast Passenger Flow Distribution;Using logit model to forecast mode split;Using Static Multiple Route method to forecast passenger flow assignment; building the Passenger forecast framework.Fourth, the paper analysises the conclusion's Reliability and Sensitivity.According Related indicators to check and analysis the forecast conclusion, Correct the forecast error.Finally,the paper showes the Passenger Forecast Method of Intercity Rail Transit in City Agglomeration as the example of the Passenger Forecast Method of Intercity Rail Transit from DongGuan to HuiZhou.