Passenger Forecast Of Intercity Rail Transit Based On Guang-Fo Ring Road

Urban agglomeration of our country inclined to be more and more obvious in recentyears,but central city and peripheral city lack better horizontal connection. Meanwhile thestructural defection of city traffic is more outstanding and the space accessibility betweencentral city and peripheral city is bad as well. At this moment, the intercity rail transportationwhich depends on its characters such as large-capacity, convenience, comfort, punctuality andhigh frequency arises at this historic moment.At the same time, the passenger flow forecast is the foundation of rail transit investmentdecision-making. Only when there is enough passenger transport demand, the rail transitinvestment construction is reasonable. Passenger flow forecast is a key indicator to weigh thebasic project economic cost and economic benefit after a project puts into service.Study onpassenger flow forecasting methods for intercity fast rail transit has just started in our country;meanwhile, social activities system, traffic transportation system, and the background andcontent of the passenger flow forecast are so complicated that it’s relatively difficult to makepassenger flow forecast. Therefore how to, on the basis of the traditional four steps predictmodel, choose the models and make a further forecast combining with the characteristics ofintercity passenger in city agglomeration and the intercity and in-city trip modes becomes aproblem worth studying rationally.Firstly, the paper analyzes the demand characteristics of intercity passenger in cityagglomeration and the technical characteristics of intercity rail transit and establishes thefunction of intercity rail transit in city agglomeration. Secondly, from the perspective ofpassenger forecast theory, the paper studies the intercity rail transit forecast methods andestablishes the studying technical route. Thirdly, the paper studies passenger forecast methodsand steps of intercity rail transit in city agglomeration. Adopting the OD survey as the mainmethod and the OD estimation as the auxiliary method, the status OD matrix is constructed;Using elastic coefficient method to forecast the passenger flow generation; Using dualconstrained gravity model to forecast passenger flow distribution; Using logit model toforecast mode split; Using Static Multiple Route method to forecast passenger flowassignment; building the passenger forecast framework. Taking the Passenger Forecast Method of Intercity Rail Transit from Foshan to Panyu as an example, the paper illuminatesthe Passenger Forecast Method of Intercity Rail Transit in City Agglomeration. Finally, thepaper analyzes regional transport integration and other transit passenger flows.