Development Pathway Optimization For China’s Municipal Solid Waste Disposal Sector In Certain Policy Scenarios

This paper mainly answers the following two questions:‘How to select theoptimal future development pathway for China’s municipal solid waste (MSW)disposal sector under certain economic policy scenarios’ and ‘How to makeeconomic policies to guide MSW disposal sector to develop in certainpathway’. First of all, this paper applies the method of super structure to buildan optimization decision-making model for China’s MSW disposal sector, anduses it to solve and analyze the base case by scenario analysis method. Thensensitivity analysis is conducted and the regulation patterns betweenoptimization result and parameters are presented, which can give quantitativereference for policy maker. Finally, based on the model, the influence by futurepolicies on pathway optimization is analyzed, which shows that the model iseffective and is capable to analyze quantificationally in different scenarios.Main achievements are drawn as follows:(1) An optimization decision-making model is built to optimize thedevelopment pathway for China’s MSW disposal sector using super structuremethod. Different MSW disposal technologies and their facilities’establishment, decommission and retrofitting are taken into consideration, aswell as several policies such as waste to power feed-in tariff, methane emissiontax, waste disposal subsidy and landfill disposal tax.(2) Based on real data of daily disposal ability and service age of disposalfacilities till2010, the base case scenario which contains each kind ofeconomic policies is solved by the optimization model, and developmentpathway of China’s MSW disposal sector from2011to2030is analyzed.(3) Sensitivity analysis of parameters is conducted and their regulationpattern and extent are analyzed. Policy makers can effectively make methaneemission reduction policy by doing sensitivity analysis, and deal withsignificant questions such as if to reduce methane emission or not, when andhow much efforts should make to reduce methane.(4) Based on the optimization model, a further discussion of MSW disposalsector development pathway in different policy scenarios is conducted. The influence by MSW disposal subsidy policy, methane emission reduction policy,and kitchen waste classification and disposal policy are dicussed, which cangive quantitative reference for policy makers.