Research And Implementation. Lightning Warning Forecast

Lihgtning disaster is among the ten most serious natural disaster in the world. Sichuan Province is lightning disaster-prone area, where lightning activities are frequent and the loss brought is increasingly high. For the increasingly urgent social needs, such work units as lightning protection center in Sichuan carry out technology of lightning disaster early-warning and forecast. Through implementation of research topics, Sichuan lightning potential forecast and early-warning manages to start from scratch, fills up the blank of lightning early-warning and forecast in this province, and comprehensively supports the establishment and development of lightning track business. Besides, it also partly satisfies social needs, successfully reduces losses brought by lightning disaster. Furthermore, the research results will be directly transformed into technological core in building up Sichuan lightning impending early-warning business platform, and hence become an important part of lightning forecast business and provide direct technical support for business system development. With the purpose of achieving advanced technology and businness innovation, the outcome will be taken as the key in promoting regional use and so completely change the present single and backward condition and realize research-oriented business transformation.Based on the fact that Sichuan lightning protection center has studied lightning activity rules in Sichuan for many years, the paper is mainly concerned about numerical weather forecast and aero logical and surface meteorological data in Sichuan lightning potential forecast, and study and realization of applied technology about new-generation weather radar and GIS technology. The main content is:1.study and realization of lightning potential forecast. On the basis of numerical forcast products, the paper employs monitoring data in Sichuan got by lightning position indicator, aero logical and surface monitoring data. With the adoption of decision tree, the paper also carries out researches of lightning potential forecast lasting from 0 to 12 hours, in which eight predictors, including convective available potential energy(CAPE), vertical wind shear, 850pha potential pseudo-equivalent temperature (θse), distance between 850pha and 500pha, vertical velocity, vorticity,T213 mode and 12-hour precipitation prediction, are used to form lightning potential forecast decision tree. Besides, in the researches of the paper, lightning potential forecast system is established on ARCGIS common platform, which realizes the kind of lightning potential forecast with 1°*1°spatial resolution and 12 hours'time resolution. Based on present achievements, lightning potential forecast business are further carried out and at present the accuracy rate of lightning potential forecast reaches 85%.2. Study and realization of applied technology of lightning impending early-warning. Among new generation weather radar products, the paper makes full use of products highly relevant to storm features, like Composite Reflectivity (CR), Echo TOP Height (ET), Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL), One Hour Precipitation (OHP), Storm Tracking Information (STI), and consider them as predicators. At the same time, combine the forecast factors with lightning monitoring scene materials, which are allocated to a 3Km* 3Km lattice position field, and determine the weight of each predicator by relying on proportion method and empirical statistics. Calculate Lightning Early-warning Index (LEI) and grade lighting into red, orange, yellow and naught kinds. Finally, extend the early-warning field to 0-2 hours and hence manage to show the key technology researches on thunder & lightning early-warning effects by means of GIS platform.3. The paper also studies on GIS applied technology in Sichuan lightning forecast and early-warning system. On GIS platform displayed Sichuan lightning monitoring& forecast& early-warning system, lightning monitoring data, lightning data density statistics, lightning potential forecast products, lightning early-warning products etc.