| In this paper, we use the observational data from1981to2010of Baoding’s19stations and the date of lightning monitoring and location network and the atmospheric electric field monitoring network of Baoding to analysis the distribution characteristics of lightning activity in Baoding. We also use these data to analysis the support to the actual meteorological operations and the value to the meteorological services of the lightning monitoring and location data and the atmospheric electric field monitoring data.(1) On the basis of introducing the the characteristics of the lightning activity, we use the statistical methods to analysis and get the conclusion that the lightning occurrence of years changes greatly and is closely related to the weather system. Lightning occurs mainly from April to September in Baoding, concentrated in June, July and August, especially in the morning and evening. At the same time, the differences between the underlying pad surfaces cause the differences of the convective activities.(2) Through the analysis of the lightning data and electric field data of two thunderstorms in Baoding, we study the characteristics of lightning activity and the changes of the ground electric field, and discussed the effectiveness of the methods of lightning monitoring and warning, and get the following conclusions: Through detecting the value of ground atmospheric electric field and their changes, we can warn the development trend of thunderstorm activity and the possibility of lightning and other severe weather, which can long-term applied to the lightning monitoring and early warning.(3) On the basis of determining the technical solutions of lightning potential forecasting, we summarized the instability parameters, calculate the correlation between lightning activity and instability parameters with SPSS statistical software, select the predictor, and establish the potential prediction equations and potential forecast practices with the multiple regression method. We also use the sample of2012to carried out an independent trial report test and verify the practical value of potential prediction equations initially.(4) On the basis of discussion the conditions and methods of lightning warning, we get two warning methods:the first one is using the correlation between lightning monitoring data and radar echo to establish warning model, and get the nonlinear forecasting equation. Another is using the atmospheric electric field monitoring data to build an early warning model, and give the early warning information of lightning. At the same time, we use the samples of actual lightning in2011and2012to examine the fitting results and forecast results of lightning warning using the atmospheric electric field data... |
