Research On Land Use Pattern Evolution Based On Ca And Economic Model

How to use the cellular automata coupled with economic model to express the land use complex system become a hotspot and a research direction of the cellular automata. With cellular automata as the realizable method, the Aranzo rent theory as transform rule and the standard land price as the land-used consumption, and adding neighborhood density to extent the model,the coupled model was built.With Shenzhen as an example, the land was categorized as urban and nonurban. Using the model,this paper evolved the land pattern of 2001 and 2006 and predicted the land pattern of 2011 and 2016 taken 1996 as the basic year and 5 years as a step. The results told that urban expansion mostly used cultivated land, garden, woodland; and non-urban land converted to urban land such as industrial land, public facilities and service land, residential land. Besides, urban expansion was mostly happened around the business center. Moreover, the industry land and the land price have the most pertinence. The accuracy of test results indicated that the cellular economic model could reflect evolution rule of the land use pattern, which had a certain practicality.The innovations of this paper are as follows:Firstly, this paper extended the cellular automata model:this paper combined economic model and cellular automata model to simulate the land use pattern in Shenzhen.Secondly, this paper built the city's land-use dynamics simulation system:this paper integrated the GIS spatial analysis function, SPSS powerful statistical functions and urban land use change model,which built a tightly coupled simulation of urban land use change system.Finally, this paper strengthened the economic factors:The model reinforced the impact of economic factors taken the standard land price as the land-used consumption, which could reflect the evolution rule of land-use from the macro-scale and micro-scale.