Geological Disaster Monitoring And Forecasting Of Regional Road Decision Support System Key Technology Research And Implementation

As the largest developing country, China has a large scale national freeway network which is being constructed with an unprecedented speed. The freeways are prone to be destroyed by varieties of geological hazards for there are lots of geological hazards in China. Therefore, researching and exploring new methods and technologies of geological hazard monitoring and prediction, and developing the decision support system for the regional freeways geological hazard monitoring and prediction are helpful to reducing the lose and protecting life and property safe.The regional highway geological hazards susceptibility mapping and hazard prediction were taken into account as major subjects in this paper. Integrating the theories of geological hazard monitoring and prediction and the technologies computer information, the study deeply researched how to design and realize the decision support system of regional highway geological hazard monitoring and prediction. The main contents of this paper as follows:(1) Building a data model of regional highway geological hazard. According to the data features of regional highway geological hazard, this paper proposed a data integration program for the regional highway geological hazards, established an exclusive data standard referring to relative codes, built a data model of regional highway geological hazard based on Geodatabase. The data model consists of:①the data model of hazards susceptibility mapping, which includes geographical and socio-economic feature dataset, landform and lithology structure feature dataset, hydrological and meteorological monitoring feature dataset, hazards information and distribution feature dataset, mass monitoring network feature dataset, analysis and evaluation results feature dataset, hazard attribute information table and project management information table;②the project data model of typical geological hazard such as landslides, collapse and debris flows, which includes monitoring network dataset, hazard normal attributes table, monitoring data table and analysis data table and etc. Based on the data model of regional highway geological hazard, the study developed center database of regional highway geological hazard.(2) Building model library and knowledge library for landslide prediction. Landslide deformation could be divided mainly into four stage such as squirm stage, uniform speed deformation stage, speed up deformation stage, and critical sliding stage. This paper established the comprehensive evaluation model based on extenics evaluation method for identifying the landslide stage because landslide is the result of a variety of random accidental factors. According to the characters and classification of criterion landslide prediction, the early warning knowledge representations were researched and knowledge library was designed. Furthermore, the study realized landslide prediction model class design based on object-oriented thought and built a united model of landslide prediction based on normal monitoring data-processing model and prediction model.The application of the decision support system in Guizhou province indicated that the achievements of this paper, which had scientific theory model and the merit of simply operation, can expressed intuitively the analysis and prediction result and provided a modern method to predict accurately landslide hazard. Regional Highway Geological Hazard Monitoring and Prediction Decision Support System, based on theories of monitoring and prediction and GIS technologies, had great dominance and application prospects in the field of regional highway geological hazard monitoring and prediction.