| Climate change and its' impact to macroeconomic and the social development have been the focus of governments and scientists all over the world (IPCC, 2001). How to find the balance between the economic growth and climate protection? That is, we can't immolate the climate for economic growth, and also can't immolate the economic growth greatly for climate protection. This issue is related directly with sustainable development, so the academia of each country has developed a lot of corresponding research.When we compare the research work of climate protection all sidely, there are two obvious characteristics: First, the strategic method of climate protection is focused on increasing carbon tax to reduce emission. Second, most of the model structures are usually based on economic general equivalence. This kind of research is rational in economic frame. However, considering that climate change is a geographical systematic scientific issue, we need to involve the Man-Land relationship's coordination in the research. Based on the theory of the Man-Land relationship's coordination, we will establish such a kind of idea in the paper: First, besides the economic strategy, we also can try to change the structure of carbon emission through the geographical method; Second, the general equivalence mode of market analysis can not reflect rationally the process of economic growth, and is hard to reflect the key instrument realizing the Man-Land relationship's coordination, technical change. So we need innovative research for such a long-range problem of climate protection.The paper is based on the State-contingent model, which contains the analysis of carbon abatement's macroeconomic impact, and the Demeter model, which contains the endogenous technology change. The model we build combines the theory of new-economic growth and the theory of the Man-Land relationship's coordination, and it is made up of three sub models: macroeconomic model based on the theory of new-economic growth, climate model including uncertainty and decision-making model reflecting the Man-Land relationship's coordination. The paper integrates a lot of fields, such as the climate change, the social economy and energy consumption, and its emphases is to evaluate the impact of various climate protection strategies to Chinese macroeconomic security and social welfare. Here, various climate protection strategies involve increasing carbon sink, using substituting energy and controlling the carbon emission during production.Based on the implication and methods of climate protection considering the Man-Landrelationship's coordination, this research has mainly finished the following new points: Economic modeling of the mechanism about increasing carbon sink:The paper makes a summarization and geographic analysis about the research of carbon sink as a kind of method of climate protection. Then, based on this, we decide the model of economic cost increasing carbon sink, and make those endogenous as the factors of economic system. The model contains the analysis to endogenous technology change and the modeling of climate protection using substituting energy:Based on the idea of the Man-Land relationship's coordination, the paper develops the climate protection policy using substituting energy, and applies the endogenous technology change to the modeling of the climate protection policy using substituting energy. Analyzing the risk of climate protection under the climate change's uncertainty:We add the uncertain factor to the factors of climate change, and evaluate the sensitivity of these uncertain factors to the climate-economic system.Because the issue of climate protection based on the idea of the Man-Land relationship's coordination comes down to natural climate system and social economic system, and it contains many various kinds of climate protection policies, so we can set up a lot of corresponding scenarios. For the computation's convenience and exactness, we build "Chinese climate protection's Decision-making Supporti... |
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