An Empirical Research Of Human Capital's Influence On The Growth Of China's Service Trade

Since 1980s, service trade has shown strong vitality with its astonishing growth rate, becoming the most active part in international trade. From 1980 to 2008, the total global trade in services expanded from 767.4 billion U.S. dollars to 7.2 trillion U.S. dollars, which increased 8.4 times. While service trade expanding rapidly, services trade structure is also undergoing profound changes, gradually turning from the traditional resource-intensive and labor-intensive service trade to the modern intellectual-intensive and capital-intensive service trade, such as computer and information services, financial services, insurance services, telecommunications services. With the development of technology and economic globalization, the competitive advantage of service trade among countries is no longer the tangible resources, but the intangible knowledge, technology, information, skills and experience. All these belong to humans and their essence are human capital. From the perspective of the overall and sub-level of human capital, this paper does some research about human capital's influence on the growth of China's service trade.Firstly this paper explained the basic conceptions, classifications and characteristics of human capital and service trade, followed by some qualitative description of human capital's function to service trade. Then we carried out a detailed analysis about the situation of human capital accumulation and service trade development in China. On this basis, through the establishment of the VAR model, the Johansen cointegration test, impulse response functions and variance decomposition, we analyze the general human capital's influence on the growth of service trade in China; and by least squares regression, we analyze different levels of human capital's influence on the growth of service trade.The analysis concluded that human capital and China's service trade balances in a long-term relationship, and human capital is the main factor that influence the growth of service trade, although the physical capital also plays a role, but not as elements of human capital. In order to clarify different levels of human capital's impact on the growth of service trade, the paper made a further empirical study. Regression analysis showed that the primary human capital is the main driver of service trade in recent years, high stock of human capital did not work as well as primary capital because of its shortage. With the structure of service trade, we can find that the low level of overall human capital particularly lacking of high-level human capital is an important reason that our modern service trade developed slowly. Therefore, the state should increase investment in education to increase human capital accumulation and improve the level of overall human capital; by optimizing the educational structure to optimize the human capital structure, increasing the stock of advanced human capital; at the same time establish the appropriate policy to ensure the rational allocation of human capital; improve independent innovation capabilities, and prepare solid talent pool and inexhaustible power for the development of China's service trade.