Integrated System Based On Prediction Model In The Application Of Gas Safety Administration

Safety production is the "lifeline" of Coal mines. But gas is one of the biggest factors of coal mine accident. Once it happens, it will cause the crash of Coal mines and loses of people's lives. Effective prevention and treatment of gas accidents plays an important role on the safe production of coal mines. Along with the increase in the amount of coal mining,it will inevitably lead to the increase of the accidents caused by gas. Security issues will become increasingly prominent. From the Coal Mine Gas Control and Coordination Leading Group, we know that coal mine accidents killed 3886 people on average per year from 2005 to 2008.Coal mine gas explosion killed 2173 people each year, it accounts for 56% of accident rates. Therefore, the prevention and control work of coal mine gas should be based on the present, focusing on long-term. It is necessary to take urgent measures to firmly control the accident-prone momentum of the extraordinarily serious coal mine gas accident. Carry out the Special rectification activities of gas which focus on the investigation and rectification of hidden danger of gas.This paper was launched on the basis of the above-mentioned background. It aims at the characteristics and general rules of coal mine gas accident and bases on the integrated management theory of coal companies. At the same time, it applies the latest results of modern safety production and management theory and systematically expounds the theory of the safety management of gas. That is the control technology management of coal mine gas and determination of the boundaries of gas explosion and other analysis. This paper puts forward a gas safety integrated system with the functions of monitoring, prediction, evaluation and aims at providing a new security management model for the safety management of coal mines and changing "the after management" to "the ex ante control" in order to eliminate risk sources in the bud and remove the risk factors timely to ensure the safe and normal production of coal mines.The main contents of this paper:(1)Discuss the present development trend of management information systems and put forward the deficiencies of the current system through the status quo analysis of domestic and international safety management system of coal mines.(2)Make the predicted theoretical analysis of the implementation of the risk sources of gas. Build predictive management system and predictive analytic process of the risk source of gas by the analysis of the significance of the implementation of prediction and predictive basic principles. Finally, it puts forward prediction models of the source of gas risk by using fault tree analysis model.(3)On the basis of the theoretical analysis of the safety management of coal mine gas, it uses the time series prediction model, regression prediction model and gray prediction model which are three kinds of typical prediction model. Predicting all kinds of risk sources of gas is one of the important aspects to study safety prediction information model of coal mine gas.(4)Safety integrated system coal mine gas is critical for the production safety of the entire coal mine. Monitoring system is the infrastructure of the information management of coal enterprise. In this paper, the above-mentioned three kinds of predictive models are combined and establish an integrated warning system which can not only improve the accuracy of predictions, but also can achieve the simultaneous predictions of a variety of risks. Through the analysis of the second chapter, we can know the three basic conditions of gas explosion. In this section, it focuses on monitoring gas concentration which can also effectively prevent and treat gas explosion. It not only provides a platform for research of gas risk early warning combined with the actual production but also puts forward the direction of further studies. The mainly task and innovation of this thesis: the above-mentioned three kinds of predictive models is base of biuding safety prediction information model of coal mine gas.