China's Beef Supply And Demand Analysis

The three aspects about the development of current cattle industry this thesis researches are: firstly, the beef production growth pace is slackening off in spite of the beef production is mounting continually, so it is important to research how to achieve sustainability of beef production; secondly, as the improvement of people's income, the beef demands are increasing rapidly, which is not only quantitative but also qualitative, so it's also important to explore how to promote people's beef consumption; thirdly, the main purpose of the thesis is to establish a scientific judgment and formulate policy measures, so it's necessary to predict the level of beef production and consumption with a mathematical method. According to the analysis of the thesis, the main conclusion is as follows:(1)Compared with the other kinds of meat, beef production has no advantage of quantity and speed. Considering the quantity, beef production increases 5.3 million tons from 1990 to 2008, at the same time, pork production increases 28.37 million tons, in proportion of 18.44%; with the consideration of increment speed, the multiple of mutton production is 1.5, the multiple of beef production is 1.05, the speed of beef production is slower than that of muttion production(2)The beef production advantage of Central Plains and Northeast is lower than before, by contrast, the advantage of Northwest and Southwest is higher. The proportion of beef production in Central Plains and Northeast is decreasing from 64.24% to 55.28% during the period of 1999 to 2008, so the dominance of the area is gradually weakening; at the same time, the proportion of beef production in Northwest and Southwest is from 14.33% to 21.25%, so the dominance is improving constantly.(3)The efficiency of beef production totally takes on a trend of ascending. From the trend of technical efficiency, the efficiency of beef production takes on a trend of ascending and the concrete numeric values go up from 0.8053 in 1998 to 0.9446 in 2008, which means the distance between actual production and ideal production is lessened from 19.37% to 5.54%.(4)The difference of people's beef consumption among different income groups is larger than before and it draws a apparent trend. Until 2008, the per capita beef consumption has been pulled to 0.538, and the total trend is growing continually with a prediction.(5)The influential factors have great differences between urban and rural beef consumption. For the people in town, per capita beef consumption is unrelated with the price of beef, but related with people's income, the level of people's income is still in the middle or lower, so the development of beef consumption has a great potential. For the people in country, per capita beef consumption is related with the price of beef, but unrelated with people's income, so it's obvious that people in country are not in the demand for costly goods.(6)The analytical order of grey relationship, GM(1,1) and GM(1,N) is reasonable for the prediction of beef production and beef consumption and the fuctions are respectively the choices of factors, the best copies and the prediction analysis of all information. According to the accuracy of prediction method, it is fitting for the prediction of beef production and beef consumption, especially for short term. After all, according with statistics and measurement analysis, the press our cattle industry met couldn't be ignored and it's urgent to develop cattle industry rationally, but the policy direction should be a little difference among different factors. At the same time, the per capita beef consumption rises gradually, in order to make sure the right development of cattle industry and promote the increase of per capita beef consumption, it's reasonable to transfer the meat consumption structure with some encourage measures.