Research On The Possibility Of Overseas M&A For Chinese Commercial Banks

After entry of 21 century, financial globalization develops at fast speed. The financial crisis starting from 2008 has impacts on almost every country in the world. To adapt the current economic situation and improve the ability of eliminating negative impacts of the crisis, Chinese banks must"go outside of China"and make use of financial resources of other countries to realize internationalization. Overseas experiences show that overseas M&A is an optimal way. Although overseas M&A transactions Chinese banks increases in recent years, there's still a long way to go with strength, depth and attention to prediction and evaluation of pre-M&A. Meanwhile there's few literature to research on how to enhance the possibility of successful M&A. Therefore, it's necessary to make profound thinking and research, both qualitatively and quantitatively in new market background.This thesis based on theory analysis, explained underlying reasons, present situation and problems of Chinese banks'overseas M&A and proved the necessity and feasibility of further overseas M&A. It selected and analyzed the most typical and newest overseas case: BNP Paribas Bank merged Fortis Bank. Chosen 30 European and American banks as a sample, on basis of their statistic features, the author built Logistic model to regress correlation parameters on M&A possibility using software SPSS. To increase the application of the model, she put the case data of China Merchant Bank merged Wing Lung Bank HK and proved the accuracy of the model. APV, evaluation method of Adjusted Present Value is introduced in this research with real case of OTP Bank. Finally analysis of risks and related solution are offered.The creativity of this thesis lies in quantitative analysis with logistic model and real case as proof. Introduction of APV China is also innovative. We hope to contribute what we can on sound development of Chinese banking with insights.