Sichuan Electric Power Demand Forcast

Along with the deepening reform of the electricity market,the electric power profession develops fast, the economic society development and the electric power market relations are getting more and more close. Electricity supply and demand balance is the core of the regional electricity market research one of the issues.There is often an imbalance of electricity supply and demand in Sichuan Province in recent years,If the power supply can not meet the economic development and people's living requirements, it will be severely restricting economic development and hindering competition and open up the construction of the regional electricity market.This paper first analyzes the status of the country's electricity industry and trends.Combination of the development of economic and social influnce on the needs of the power industry trends in Sichuan Province, this paper analyzes the status of the development of power industry in Sichuan Province.On this basis, firstly using Granger causality test model, error correction model, analysis of electricity consumption and economic growth in the direction of causation between,Followed by the use of cointegration theory, error correction model (ECM), gray prediction theory and the exponential smoothing method, the demand for electricity in Sichuan Province (2009-2015) were predicted.The Sichuan Province in the power shortages and scarcity of energy resources and the new power market conditions, good power supply and power grid planning and construction work, do a good job adjusting the industrial structure in order to promote sustainable economic development in Sichuan Province to provide a scientific theory.