Present Situation And Development Trend Analysis For Coastal Coal Transportation Market In China

Coal is the main energy which has been related to economic development society stabilization of our country. For many reasons, in a long period in the future, the situation that coal is our country's main energy will not change.The coal resource in our country is very rich, while the distribution is unbalanced. The coal in our country is mainly mined in the Midwest of China, while the consumption is mainly in those more developed eastern coastal regions. The unbalance of the production and consumption determines that we have to transport the coal from the north to the south and from the west to the east.In China's coal transportation system, coastal transportation plays an important part because of the high cost of highway transportation and the capacity constraint of railway transportation. Thus, in order to offer decision basis to related enterprises, it's necessary for us to analyze the present situation and predict the development trend for coal's coastal transportation market.This paper studied the characteristic of the demand, supply and freight rate of coal's coastal transportation market through the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis. Two prediction models, one for coal's transport volume in main ports, the other for the freight index of coal's coastal transportation, were established based on Residual Gray Prediction and Seasonal Exponential Smoothing respectively. The tests of the models have shown the models high accuracy in the prediction. Besides, the predictions on the transportation volume and freight index were also carried out with proposed models.