Various Prediction Techniques For The Electricity Demand Forecasts In The "11th Five-Year Plan" Period And Comparative Study

Learned from the fact that China has experienced the large-scale electric power demand expansion, in order to avoid electric power shortage in the future, it is essential to systematically research on the technology of Forecast electricity demand. If we can not understand and grasp the changes in electricity demand, Power and Grid can not be carried out building , also in the power industry can not cope with the changes in the market.At first, this paper analyzed the factors affecting the demand for electricity. The impact of factors divided into three categories. Then, building Linear Regression Model,Cointegration Model,Dynamic Adaptive Mechanism Grey Forecasting Model. Forecasts of electricity demand from 2006 to 2015. In particular from 2006 to 2010 the demand of electricity has been studied in detail. Abase on the above study, compared with the latest research achievements. Established a system to forecast electricity demand, and of a different scope of application of prediction technology. Finally this paper summarizes the results of the study.From 2006 to 2010 the study showed that with the level of modernization of China's national economy and social development has entered a new stage, the consumption structure upgrading to force upgrading of the industrial structure, the pace of industrialization and urbanization speed up, which will lead to the optimization of dynamic performance prediction model on the mechanism of grey level and the coefficient of samples Capacity changes, the establishment of such changes become necessary The linear regression model of uncertainty GDP growth rate of GDP time series itself, as well as the non-smooth, but not for long-term electricity demand forecast.Research shows that using of linear regression model with the theoretical prediction cointegration portfolio to meet short-term electricity demand forecasting; using cointegration theoretical prediction and optimization of dynamic electricity demand forecasting model portfolio grey mechanism to meet the long-term forecast.The demand for electricity will expand. Factors affecting the demand for electricity increased complexity. China's the power industry improving faster. To pay special attention to avoid repeating the 10th five-year plan began in electricity surplus electricity shortage of resources and finally the road.