Study On Key Issues Of Modal Demand Forecasting Model

Modal Demand (MD) forecasting theory and method was born in Japan, which is applicable to new ways of traffic such as passenger dedicated line. In the late 20th century, this method was introduced to China in the demanding forecasting of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail. Due to its ability of predict the travel demanding including the transfer traffic volume and the induced increment, it is widely accepted by many professional experts and scholars. It is considered as an important application in the planning and construction of both passenger dedicated lines and high-speed railways. But actually, MD forecasting model is not widely used interiorly. The main reason is that some key issues are to be solved in the practices. Based on this, this paper focus on the parameter calibration of the passenger time value, the parameter calibration of passenger transport utility and the construction of demand function describing potential passenger transport demand.The structure and work of this dissertation embodied in the following respects:Chapter One instructs the background and the purport of this dissertation and also presents the research status at home and aboard. The research content is also stated in this chapter.The basic principle of MD model is presented in Chapter Two. The key points of problems are expressed as the time value, the utility of passenger transport and the potential passenger transport demanding.The method of how to calibrate the parameters of time value is discussed in Chapter Three. The probability distribution of time value is proposed on the base of the Maximize Utility Theory. The variable of the time, cost and income are introduced in the utility function of Logit model so as to estimate the mean and the variance of the time value. The model is checked in the TransCAD software.The calibration method of the travel utility is researched in Chapter Four. Considering about the unquantification of the travel utility, it is proposed a method of back-stepping from the relations of the travel utility, time value and the potential demanding as well as the travel data. A full set of feasible process of calculating the trip utility is set up in this chapter.The potential travel demanding function is deliberated in Chapter Five. In order to establish the function to calculate the potential travel demanding, the quality relationship of the conversion rate from the potential travel demanding to the travel demanding is utilized to reckon the potential travel demand between the research regions so that to analyze its relations with securable macro social economic index.Chapter six introduces the application process and steps of MD model on the basis of the previous chapters.The paper has certain reference value on studies of the time value,the travel utility and demand function of potential travel demanding, and also promote the programlization and the widespread application of MD model in country.