The Study Of The Simulation And Influencing Factors Of Lang Use Change Based On Ca-Markov Model And Multi-Level Model

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is the frontier research of the current global environmental change. It is a useful way to explore LUCC micro behaviour mechanism by revealing dynamic feedback relationship between physical environment and human activities through land use scenario simulation models and studying on factors influencing landholder's choices, decision-making process, and land use change outcomes.This article firstly explored the land use change in spatial distribution and temporal at Gao Xi-gou Village by aerial photos and current land use map obtained by measurement dates. On this basis, it simulated future land use change by using CA-Markov (Cellular Automata, referred to as CA) model and predicted the future land use on the optimal scale. Further in order to better understand the land use change in micro-scale, this article analyzed the factors of affecting household's land-use decision-making by multi-level model, and revealed the micro-pattern of the village land-use change driven mechanism. Some conclusions were put forward as follows:(1) This article revealed the rule of spatial and temporal variation of land use of the study area. The natural grassland area declined, woodland increased during last 50 years; In general, the extent of land use change showed steadily decreasing trend, and between the year 2002 and 2009 the land use change of the study area has been in the stable adjustment period; The land transfer result showed that the characteristic of the land use transformation decreased in the cultivated land and natural grass land, and increased in economic forest land and artificial grassland.(2) The land use change of the optimal scale was analysized through CA-Markov model. The optimal scale of measure was 5m×5m by validation and using it to predict the land use in 2016. The results showed that the land use change area from 2009 to 2016 was mainly taken place in the village Yang-shan region, especially in farmland and economic forest interlaced plots, and the land use change type was from arable land to pasture and the economy woodland between the year of 2002 and 2009.(3) This article analyzed the impact factors of household's land use decision-making in the micro-scale and meso-scale by multi-level model. The results showed that the household's decision-making of planting potatoes and millet was related to the natural factors and the socio-economic factors, and the socio-economic factors played the main effect. The result showed that the multi-level model could be used to analyze the multi-scale factors of the land use decision-making and this research provided a way of studying the household's land use decision-making.