| The Sustainable Development of Society is based on the Sustainability of Urban Land-use.Therefore it is very necessary to research the Urban Land-use.Urban Land-use has the character of Complex Adaptive System Simulation using computer technology is becoming one hot point nowadays.In this paper,we compound the CA and Markov Model to construct two dimensions CA-Markov composite Model and use it to research Urban Land-use Firstly,we analyze the Single Multitude Model and give the Markov property of it for first time.Secondly,to amend evolvement multitude rule of the Single Multitude Model,we import herd coefficient and herd coefficient matrix into it and make the rule have the characteristic of multitude and keeping individuality.Thirdly,in virtue of Markov theory,we get the herd coefficient matrix from Markov change probability matrix and construct the CA-Markov composite Model and get some characteristics of the CA-Markov composite Model Finally,we do simulations and sort for Xinjian County by using the Markov Model and the CA-Markov composite Model, respectively and analyze and compare the simulation results abortively.The results show that CA-Markov composite Model not only has spatial simulation advantage,but also have the choiceness character of Markov process.It has better simulation capacity for Complex Adaptive System than Single Markov Model and Multitude Model.The simulate results of Xinjian County in CA-Markov composite Model show that Xinjian's arable land will gradually decrease,while construction land,traffic land and garden land will gradually increase,and unused land and forest land little increase.Xinjian County should enhance protection of arable land,control the land used for construction and traffic,and try best to exploiture the unused land.The simulation results also show the validity of the research methods in this paper and the CA-Markov composite Model.It will offer some valuable advices for the management of Urban Land-use. |
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